Estoril vs Moreirense preview
In the Primeira Liga match between Estoril and Moreirense, the 1X2 probabilities show Estoril at 45%, while Moreirense is at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Estoril, with a 12% chance. Estoril's recent form is poor, with 5 consecutive losses and a draw, while Moreirense has 2 losses, a draw, and 1 win in their last 5 matches.
The expected goals are close, with Estoril at 0.99 and Moreirense at 1.01, suggesting a tight contest. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 32%, and both teams to score is at 41%. These figures indicate a low-scoring match could be likely, but the recent form of both teams could lead to unexpected outcomes.
Estoril vs Moreirense: model vs market
| Source | Estoril | Draw | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 34% | 32% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | -18% | +9% | +9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Estoril vs Moreirense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Estoril, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 1.90 | 1.80 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.51 | 3.70 | +0.19 |
| Moreirense | 3.90 | 4.10 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Estoril and Moreirense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.96
- Attack rating (Estoril / Moreirense)
- 0.60 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Estoril / Moreirense)
- 1.08 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Estoril vs Moreirense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Estoril goals. Columns: Moreirense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Estoril vs Moreirense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Estoril vs Moreirense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estoril | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Moreirense | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.48 |
| No | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Estoril or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Moreirense) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Estoril win by 2+ | 14% | 7.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Estoril and Moreirense recent form
Estoril
0W 2D 4L
Moreirense
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Estoril at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Moreirense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Estoril at home only, Moreirense away only.
Estoril vs Moreirense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Estoril 0 · draws 1 · Moreirense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Moreirense | 1-0 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-12-07 | Estoril | 3-3 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Vitória SC vs Maritimo — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Alverca vs Arouca 2026-10-24
- Estrela v Casa Pia — match page 2026-10-24
- GIL Vicente vs FC Porto — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Nacional vs SC Braga 2026-10-25
- Rio Ave v Famalicao — match page 2026-10-25
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Estoril, previous: Salgueiros – Estoril, 2026-10-18
- Moreirense, previous: AVS vs Moreirense: odds and pick