Alverca vs Arouca preview
In the match between Alverca and Arouca, the 1X2 probabilities show Alverca at 42%, Arouca at 30%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. Alverca's expected goals are 1.41, while Arouca's are slightly higher at 1.54.
Both teams to score stands at 60%, and there is a 56% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Recent form indicates Alverca has 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Arouca has 4 wins in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. This could make the predictions less reliable if either team improves their performance unexpectedly.
Alverca vs Arouca: model vs market
| Source | Alverca | Draw | Arouca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Published | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Edge | -10% | -2% | +12% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alverca vs Arouca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alverca, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 2.19 | 2.12 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.39 | 3.30 | -0.09 |
| Arouca | 3.12 | 3.40 | +0.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alverca and Arouca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Alverca / Arouca)
- 1.02 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Alverca / Arouca)
- 1.01 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alverca vs Arouca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alverca goals. Columns: Arouca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alverca vs Arouca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alverca vs Arouca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alverca | 42% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Arouca | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alverca or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Arouca) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alverca win by 2+ | 16% | 6.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alverca and Arouca recent form
Alverca
3W 1D 2L
Arouca
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alverca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Arouca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alverca at home only, Arouca away only.
Alverca vs Arouca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Alverca 1 · draws 0 · Arouca 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Alverca | 2-1 | Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-12-14 | Arouca | 1-0 | Alverca | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- GIL Vicente vs FC Porto — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Estoril v Moreirense — match page 2026-10-25
- Nacional vs SC Braga 2026-10-25
- Rio Ave v Famalicao — match page 2026-10-25
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Alverca, previous: Tondela v Alverca analysis
- Arouca, previous: CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca prediction