Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya preview
In the Stars League fixture, Al Ahli Doha faces Al-Sailiya, with a 56% probability for a home win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 71%.
However, Al Ahli Doha's recent form shows inconsistency with two wins in their last five matches, while Al-Sailiya has lost four of their last five. This recent struggle could impact the expected goals, where Al Ahli Doha averages 2.38 and Al-Sailiya 1.51. The confidence grade is C, indicating that while the model suggests a strong chance for a home win, recent performances could lead to unexpected results.
Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya: model vs market
| Source | Al Ahli Doha | Draw | Al-Sailiya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al Ahli Doha and Al-Sailiya expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.89
- Attack rating (Al Ahli Doha / Al-Sailiya)
- 1.00 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Al Ahli Doha / Al-Sailiya)
- 1.10 / 1.41
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Ahli Doha goals. Columns: Al-Sailiya goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ahli Doha | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.81 | |
| Al-Sailiya | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Ahli Doha or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Sailiya) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ahli Doha win by 2+ | 36% | 2.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Ahli Doha and Al-Sailiya recent form
Al Ahli Doha
3W 1D 2L
Al-Sailiya
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Ahli Doha at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Al-Sailiya away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Ahli Doha at home only, Al-Sailiya away only.
Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al Ahli Doha 5 · draws 3 · Al-Sailiya 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Al Ahli Doha | 2-2 | Al-Sailiya | Stars League |
| 2026-01-19 | Al-Sailiya | 2-1 | Al Ahli Doha | QSL Cup |
| 2025-11-01 | Al-Sailiya | 1-2 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| 2023-04-29 | Al Ahli Doha | 0-4 | Al-Sailiya | Stars League |
| 2023-01-12 | Al-Sailiya | 1-2 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| 2022-09-25 | Al-Sailiya | 2-3 | Al Ahli Doha | QSL Cup |
| 2022-03-01 | Al-Sailiya | 2-2 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| 2021-12-24 | Al Ahli Doha | 1-0 | Al-Sailiya | Stars League |
| 2021-01-20 | Al-Sailiya | 0-0 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| 2020-10-18 | Al Ahli Doha | 2-0 | Al-Sailiya | Stars League |
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