Al Shamal vs Al-Duhail SC preview
In the Stars League fixture between Al Shamal and Al-Duhail SC, the model gives Al-Duhail SC a 42% chance to win, while Al Shamal has a 30% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which reflects the expected goals of 1.27 for Al Shamal and 1.54 for Al-Duhail SC.
Both teams to score has a probability of 58%, and there's a 53% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Al Shamal's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Al-Duhail SC has 2 wins in their last 6 as well. The head-to-head record is heavily in favor of Al-Duhail SC, with 9 wins in the last 10 meetings. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Al Shamal vs Al-Duhail SC: model vs market
| Source | Al Shamal | Draw | Al-Duhail SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 27% | 42% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 30% | 27% | 42% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al Shamal and Al-Duhail SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Al Shamal / Al-Duhail SC)
- 1.03 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Al Shamal / Al-Duhail SC)
- 0.97 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Shamal vs Al-Duhail SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Shamal goals. Columns: Al-Duhail SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Shamal vs Al-Duhail SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Shamal vs Al-Duhail SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shamal | 30% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Al-Duhail SC | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Shamal or draw) | 58% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Duhail SC) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Duhail SC win by 2+ | 22% | 4.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Shamal and Al-Duhail SC recent form
Al Shamal
2W 2D 2L
Al-Duhail SC
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Shamal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Al-Duhail SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Shamal at home only, Al-Duhail SC away only.
Al Shamal vs Al-Duhail SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al Shamal 1 · draws 0 · Al-Duhail SC 9.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Al Shamal | 1-3 | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League |
| 2025-10-25 | Al-Duhail SC | 2-0 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2025-04-05 | Al-Duhail SC | 0-4 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2024-11-01 | Al Shamal | 2-6 | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League |
| 2024-05-06 | Al-Duhail SC | 3-1 | Al Shamal | Emir Cup |
| 2024-03-15 | Al-Duhail SC | 3-1 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2023-10-28 | Al Shamal | 1-2 | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League |
| 2023-09-10 | Al-Duhail SC | 2-1 | Al Shamal | QSL Cup |
| 2023-05-08 | Al-Duhail SC | 5-2 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2023-01-23 | Al Shamal | 0-2 | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City 2026-10-08
- Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya — team news & stats 2026-10-08
- Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa 2026-10-08
- Qatar SC v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-10-09
- Al Sadd v Al-Arabi SC — match page 2026-10-09