Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City preview
In the Stars League fixture, Al Shahaniya faces Lusail City, with the model suggesting a 1X2 probability of 28% for Al Shahaniya, 25% for a draw, and 47% for Lusail City. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The match could see Over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 64%.
Al Shahaniya's expected goals stand at 1.38, while Lusail City has a higher expected goals of 1.81. Recent form shows Al Shahaniya with two draws and two wins in their last five matches, while Lusail City has two draws and one win. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating that these probabilities are model-only and may not reflect actual outcomes.
Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City: model vs market
| Source | Al Shahaniya | Draw | Lusail City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.38.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al Shahaniya and Lusail City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Al Shahaniya / Lusail City)
- 1.02 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Al Shahaniya / Lusail City)
- 1.08 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Shahaniya goals. Columns: Lusail City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shahaniya | 28% | 3.54 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Lusail City | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Shahaniya or draw) | 53% | 1.88 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Lusail City) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusail City win by 2+ | 26% | 3.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al Shahaniya and Lusail City recent form
Al Shahaniya
2W 2D 2L
Lusail City
1W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Shahaniya at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Lusail City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Shahaniya at home only, Lusail City away only.
Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al Shahaniya 5 · draws 4 · Lusail City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Lusail City | 1-1 | Al Shahaniya | QSL Cup |
| 2024-02-12 | Al Shahaniya | 1-0 | Lusail City | Second Division |
| 2023-10-01 | Lusail City | 1-1 | Al Shahaniya | Second Division |
| 2023-05-06 | Lusail City | 1-1 | Al Shahaniya | Second Division |
| 2023-02-10 | Al Shahaniya | 2-0 | Lusail City | Second Division |
| 2022-02-07 | Al Shahaniya | 0-2 | Lusail City | Second Division |
| 2021-09-25 | Lusail City | 0-1 | Al Shahaniya | Second Division |
| 2021-02-15 | Al Shahaniya | 2-2 | Lusail City | Second Division |
| 2020-12-25 | Lusail City | 1-2 | Al Shahaniya | Second Division |
| 2020-10-20 | Al Shahaniya | 2-0 | Lusail City | Second Division |
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