Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC preview
Al Sadd faces Al-Arabi SC in the Stars League, with a 61% probability for an Al Sadd win according to the model. The expected goals suggest a strong performance from Al Sadd at 2.43, compared to Al-Arabi SC's 1.31. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1, which aligns with a 72% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance for both teams to score.
However, the recent form shows Al Sadd on a six-match winning streak, while Al-Arabi SC has struggled with only one win in their last six matches. Al-Arabi SC has historically done well against Al Sadd, with six wins in the last ten encounters. This could impact the match outcome, making it less predictable despite the model's probabilities.
Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC: model vs market
| Source | Al Sadd | Draw | Al-Arabi SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al Sadd and Al-Arabi SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (Al Sadd / Al-Arabi SC)
- 1.82 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Al Sadd / Al-Arabi SC)
- 1.00 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Sadd goals. Columns: Al-Arabi SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Sadd | 61% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Al-Arabi SC | 19% | 5.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.48 |
| No | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Sadd or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Arabi SC) | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Sadd win by 2+ | 41% | 2.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Sadd and Al-Arabi SC recent form
Al Sadd
6W 0D 0L
Al-Arabi SC
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Sadd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Al-Arabi SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Sadd at home only, Al-Arabi SC away only.
Al Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al Sadd 3 · draws 1 · Al-Arabi SC 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Al-Arabi SC | 2-1 | Al Sadd | Stars League |
| 2026-01-19 | Al-Arabi SC | 5-0 | Al Sadd | QSL Cup |
| 2025-10-25 | Al Sadd | 1-3 | Al-Arabi SC | Stars League |
| 2025-01-30 | Al-Arabi SC | 1-3 | Al Sadd | Stars League |
| 2024-08-22 | Al Sadd | 5-0 | Al-Arabi SC | Stars League |
| 2024-03-10 | Al-Arabi SC | 2-2 | Al Sadd | Stars League |
| 2023-12-17 | Al Sadd | 0-1 | Al-Arabi SC | Stars League |
| 2023-05-12 | Al Sadd | 0-3 | Al-Arabi SC | Emir Cup |
| 2023-05-08 | Al Sadd | 1-2 | Al-Arabi SC | Stars League |
| 2023-02-09 | Al Sadd | 3-1 | Al-Arabi SC | Qatar Cup |
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