Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa preview
In the Stars League fixture between Al Wakrah and Al-Gharafa, the model gives Al Wakrah a 48% chance to win, while Al-Gharafa has a 28% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Al Wakrah, with a 9% probability. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 67%, indicating a strong likelihood of an open game.
Al Wakrah's recent form shows D-L-L-D-W-D, while Al-Gharafa has D-L-L-W-D-D. Al Wakrah has won 1 of the last 10 head-to-head encounters, with Al-Gharafa winning 5 and 4 ending in draws. The confidence grade is C, suggesting that these probabilities are based solely on the model and may not fully capture the match's dynamics.
Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa: model vs market
| Source | Al Wakrah | Draw | Al-Gharafa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.47.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al Wakrah and Al-Gharafa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.43
- Attack rating (Al Wakrah / Al-Gharafa)
- 0.97 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Al Wakrah / Al-Gharafa)
- 1.11 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Wakrah goals. Columns: Al-Gharafa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Wakrah | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Al-Gharafa | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Wakrah or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Gharafa) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Wakrah win by 2+ | 28% | 3.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Wakrah and Al-Gharafa recent form
Al Wakrah
1W 3D 2L
Al-Gharafa
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Wakrah at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
Al-Gharafa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Wakrah at home only, Al-Gharafa away only.
Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al Wakrah 1 · draws 4 · Al-Gharafa 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Al Wakrah | 0-0 | Al-Gharafa | Emir Cup |
| 2026-04-08 | Al Wakrah | 3-3 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2025-12-13 | Al Wakrah | 2-3 | Al-Gharafa | QSL Cup |
| 2025-11-21 | Al-Gharafa | 1-0 | Al Wakrah | Stars League |
| 2025-04-11 | Al Wakrah | 1-1 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2024-11-22 | Al-Gharafa | 3-1 | Al Wakrah | Stars League |
| 2024-09-06 | Al-Gharafa | 0-3 | Al Wakrah | QSL Cup |
| 2024-04-24 | Al Wakrah | 2-4 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2023-12-02 | Al-Gharafa | 1-1 | Al Wakrah | Stars League |
| 2023-02-04 | Al Wakrah | 0-4 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
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