Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC preview
In the upcoming match between Abha and Al-Faisaly FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Faisaly FC at 40%, while Abha stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Al-Faisaly FC has a slight edge in expected goals with 1.40 compared to Abha's 1.19.
Both teams to score is projected at 54%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, Abha's recent form, with 5 consecutive losses, could undermine their performance. Al-Faisaly FC's mixed results, including 2 draws in the last 3 matches, suggest they may struggle to secure a win as well.
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC: model vs market
| Source | Abha | Draw | Al-Faisaly FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 3.40, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +37.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Faisaly FC, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abha | 2.04 | 2.05 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.41 | 3.40 | -0.01 |
| Al-Faisaly FC | 3.33 | 3.30 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Abha and Al-Faisaly FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Abha / Al-Faisaly FC)
- 0.62 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Abha / Al-Faisaly FC)
- 1.13 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Abha goals. Columns: Al-Faisaly FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Abha | 31% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Al-Faisaly FC | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Abha or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Faisaly FC) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Faisaly FC win by 2+ | 20% | 5.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Abha and Al-Faisaly FC recent form
Abha
0W 1D 5L
Al-Faisaly FC
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Abha at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Faisaly FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Abha at home only, Al-Faisaly FC away only.
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Abha 3 · draws 3 · Al-Faisaly FC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | Al-Faisaly FC | 0-2 | Abha | Division 1 |
| 2025-09-11 | Abha | 2-2 | Al-Faisaly FC | Division 1 |
| 2025-02-18 | Al-Faisaly FC | 2-2 | Abha | Division 1 |
| 2024-10-01 | Abha | 3-1 | Al-Faisaly FC | Division 1 |
| 2022-05-06 | Abha | 0-0 | Al-Faisaly FC | Pro League |
| 2021-11-04 | Al-Faisaly FC | 1-0 | Abha | Pro League |
| 2021-05-14 | Al-Faisaly FC | 2-1 | Abha | Pro League |
| 2021-01-07 | Abha | 1-0 | Al-Faisaly FC | Pro League |
| 2020-09-09 | Al-Faisaly FC | 2-1 | Abha | Pro League |
| 2020-01-25 | Abha | 0-1 | Al-Faisaly FC | Pro League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Al Shabab vs Al Taawon — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Abha, previous: NEOM vs Abha prediction
- Abha, next: Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC: odds and pick
- Al-Faisaly FC, previous: Al-Faisaly FC – Al-Nassr, 2026-10-23
- Al-Faisaly FC, next: Al-Fayha v Al-Faisaly FC analysis