Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC: model vs market
| Source | Abha | Draw | Al-Faisaly FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 32% | 31% |
| Market | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Published | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Edge | -7% | +4% | +3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Abha, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abha | 2.04 | 2.05 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.41 | 3.41 | +0.00 |
| Al-Faisaly FC | 3.33 | 3.33 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Abha and Al-Faisaly FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Abha / Al-Faisaly FC)
- 0.68 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Abha / Al-Faisaly FC)
- 1.09 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Abha goals. Columns: Al-Faisaly FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Abha | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Al-Faisaly FC | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Abha or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Faisaly FC) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Abha win by 2+ | 17% | 6.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Abha and Al-Faisaly FC recent form
Abha
0W 2D 4L
Al-Faisaly FC
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Abha at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Faisaly FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Abha at home only, Al-Faisaly FC away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC 2026-10-09
- Al-Fateh v Al-Ahli Jeddah — match page 2026-10-09
- Al-Nassr v Al Diriyah — match page 2026-10-09
- Al-Hazm v NEOM — match page 2026-10-10
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat 2026-10-10
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh 2026-10-11
- Al Shabab vs Al Taawon — team news & stats 2026-10-11