NEOM vs Abha preview
In the upcoming match between NEOM and Abha, the 1X2 probabilities show NEOM at 63% to win, while Abha sits at just 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, which aligns with NEOM's expected goals of 1.93 compared to Abha's 0.79.
However, NEOM's recent form includes two losses in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. Abha has struggled as well, with five games without a win. The model suggests a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score, indicating some uncertainty in Abha's ability to find the net.
NEOM vs Abha: model vs market
| Source | NEOM | Draw | Abha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
NEOM and Abha expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (NEOM / Abha)
- 1.11 / 0.69
- Defence rating (NEOM / Abha)
- 0.81 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NEOM vs Abha score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NEOM goals. Columns: Abha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NEOM vs Abha goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NEOM vs Abha
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEOM | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | |
| Abha | 14% | 7.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NEOM or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Abha) | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | NEOM win by 2+ | 39% | 2.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NEOM and Abha recent form
NEOM
3W 1D 2L
Abha
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NEOM at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Abha away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NEOM at home only, Abha away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha 2026-10-22
- Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab 2026-10-22
- Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page 2026-10-22
- Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — match page 2026-10-23
- Al Kholood v Al-Ettifaq — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- NEOM, previous: Al-Nassr vs NEOM: odds and pick
- Abha, previous: Abha v Al Kholood analysis