Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture, Al-Hazm faces Al-Fayha with 41% 1X2 probability for Al-Hazm, compared to 27% for Al-Fayha. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance of occurring. Al-Hazm's expected goals stand at 1.21, while Al-Fayha's is lower at 0.94, indicating a potential edge for Al-Hazm.
However, both teams to score has a 44% probability, suggesting that Al-Fayha could find the net. Additionally, Al-Hazm's recent form shows 2 draws and 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Al-Fayha has 3 draws and 1 win. This recent performance could impact the match outcome and challenge the predicted scoreline.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha: model vs market
| Source | Al-Hazm | Draw | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.99.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.33
- Attack rating (Al-Hazm / Al-Fayha)
- 0.82 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Al-Hazm / Al-Fayha)
- 1.02 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Hazm goals. Columns: Al-Fayha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Hazm | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Al-Fayha | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Hazm or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Fayha) | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Hazm win by 2+ | 21% | 4.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha recent form
Al-Hazm
1W 3D 2L
Al-Fayha
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Hazm at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Al-Fayha away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Hazm at home only, Al-Fayha away only.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Hazm 1 · draws 1 · Al-Fayha 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Al-Hazm | 2-0 | Al-Fayha | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-12-25 | Al-Fayha | 0-0 | Al-Hazm | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab 2026-10-22
- Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page 2026-10-22
- Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah — team news & stats 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Al-Hazm, previous: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm prediction
- Al-Fayha, previous: Al-Fayha – Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2026-10-19