Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Hilal at 74%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 13%. Al-Hilal's expected goals stand at 2.36, while Al-Hazm has a much lower figure of 0.68.
However, Al-Hazm's recent form includes 2 draws and a win in their last 6 matches, which could challenge Al-Hilal's dominance. The model also suggests a 59% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score, indicating potential for a higher-scoring game if Al-Hazm can find the net.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm: model vs market
| Source | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Draw | Al-Hazm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 88% | 7% | 4% |
| Published | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| Edge | -10% | +8% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.10, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1.05 | 1.05 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 13.35 | 13.00 | -0.35 |
| Al-Hazm | 25.50 | 21.00 | -4.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.43
- Attack rating (Al-Hilal Saudi FC / Al-Hazm)
- 1.70 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Al-Hilal Saudi FC / Al-Hazm)
- 0.62 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Hilal Saudi FC goals. Columns: Al-Hazm goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 86% | 1.16 |
| Draw | 9% | 11.05 | |
| Al-Hazm | 5% | 19.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw) | 95% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Hazm) | 14% | 7.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC win by 2+ | 58% | 1.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm recent form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
5W 0D 1L
Al-Hazm
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Al-Hazm away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home only, Al-Hazm away only.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 · draws 0 · Al-Hazm 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Al-Hazm | 0-3 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2026-01-08 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 3-0 | Al-Hazm | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Al-Fateh v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page 2026-10-18
- Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah — match page 2026-10-19
- Abha vs Al Kholood — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC 2026-10-19
- Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh 2026-10-20
- Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC — match page 2026-10-20
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC 2026-10-20
- Al-Nassr vs NEOM — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC, previous: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC prediction
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC, next: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC: odds and pick
- Al-Hazm, previous: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh: odds and pick
- Al-Hazm, next: Al-Hazm – Al-Fayha, 2026-10-22