Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture between Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Taawon at 5%, a draw at 12%, and Al-Qadisiyah FC at 83%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 12% chance. Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent form is strong, with 6 games resulting in 5 wins and 1 draw, while Al Taawon has 4 losses and 2 draws in their last 6 matches.
Our model indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 70%, but both teams to score is lower at 45%. Al Taawon has expected goals of 0.64, while Al-Qadisiyah FC has 2.98. If Al Taawon can improve their form or if Al-Qadisiyah FC underperforms, the predictions could change.
Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC: model vs market
| Source | Al Taawon | Draw | Al-Qadisiyah FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5% | 12% | 83% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 5% | 12% | 83% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.91 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.56
- Attack rating (Al Taawon / Al-Qadisiyah FC)
- 0.55 / 1.65
- Defence rating (Al Taawon / Al-Qadisiyah FC)
- 1.24 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Taawon goals. Columns: Al-Qadisiyah FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Taawon | 5% | 20.27 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.09 | |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Taawon or draw) | 17% | 5.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC) | 95% | 1.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC win by 2+ | 64% | 1.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC recent form
Al Taawon
0W 2D 4L
Al-Qadisiyah FC
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Taawon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.
Al-Qadisiyah FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Taawon at home only, Al-Qadisiyah FC away only.
Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al Taawon 1 · draws 1 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1-1 | Al Taawon | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-11-01 | Al Taawon | 2-0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Al-Fateh v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page 2026-10-18
- Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah — match page 2026-10-19
- Abha vs Al Kholood — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC 2026-10-19
- Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh 2026-10-20
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC 2026-10-20
- Al-Nassr vs NEOM — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Al Taawon, previous: Al Diriyah v Al Taawon analysis
- Al-Qadisiyah FC, previous: Al-Qadisiyah FC – Abha, 2026-10-16
- Al-Qadisiyah FC, next: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC: odds and pick