Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League match between Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Shabab at 44%, while Al-Faisaly FC is at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The forecast suggests a 52% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score.
Al Shabab's expected goals are 1.54, compared to Al-Faisaly FC's 1.20. Recent form indicates Al Shabab has recorded W-D-L-L-D-D, while Al-Faisaly FC has W-L-D-D-L-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC: model vs market
| Source | Al Shabab | Draw | Al-Faisaly FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.20.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Al Shabab / Al-Faisaly FC)
- 0.87 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Al Shabab / Al-Faisaly FC)
- 1.02 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Shabab goals. Columns: Al-Faisaly FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shabab | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Al-Faisaly FC | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Shabab or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Faisaly FC) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Shabab win by 2+ | 23% | 4.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC recent form
Al Shabab
1W 3D 2L
Al-Faisaly FC
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Shabab at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Faisaly FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Shabab at home only, Al-Faisaly FC away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Al-Fateh v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page 2026-10-18
- Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah — match page 2026-10-19
- Abha vs Al Kholood — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh 2026-10-20
- Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC — match page 2026-10-20
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC 2026-10-20
- Al-Nassr vs NEOM — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Al Shabab, previous: Al-Ittihad FC v Al Shabab analysis
- Al Shabab, next: Al-Fateh v Al Shabab analysis
- Al-Faisaly FC, previous: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood prediction
- Al-Faisaly FC, next: Al-Faisaly FC – Al-Nassr, 2026-10-23