Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah preview
In the upcoming match between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Fayha at 14%, a draw at 20%, and Al-Ahli Jeddah at 66%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with Al-Ahli Jeddah's expected goals of 2.26 compared to Al-Fayha's 0.95.
Al-Fayha's recent form includes 3 draws and 2 losses, while Al-Ahli Jeddah has 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. With a 62% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score, the match could be influenced if Al-Fayha manages to improve their attacking output or if Al-Ahli Jeddah underperforms. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: model vs market
| Source | Al-Fayha | Draw | Al-Ahli Jeddah |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11% | 19% | 69% |
| Market | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| Published | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Ahli Jeddah, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Fayha | 7.50 | 7.17 | -0.33 |
| Draw | 5.30 | 4.95 | -0.35 |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1.31 | 1.31 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Al-Fayha / Al-Ahli Jeddah)
- 0.68 / 1.58
- Defence rating (Al-Fayha / Al-Ahli Jeddah)
- 1.04 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Fayha goals. Columns: Al-Ahli Jeddah goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Fayha | 12% | 8.11 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.41 | |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Fayha or draw) | 31% | 3.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah win by 2+ | 47% | 2.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah recent form
Al-Fayha
1W 3D 2L
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Fayha at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Fayha at home only, Al-Ahli Jeddah away only.
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Fayha 0 · draws 1 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | Al-Fayha | 1-1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-12-30 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2-0 | Al-Fayha | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Al-Fateh v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page 2026-10-18
- Abha vs Al Kholood — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC 2026-10-19
- Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh 2026-10-20
- Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC — match page 2026-10-20
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC 2026-10-20
- Al-Nassr vs NEOM — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Al-Fayha, previous: Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Fayha analysis
- Al-Fayha, next: Al-Hazm – Al-Fayha, 2026-10-22
- Al-Ahli Jeddah, previous: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr: odds and pick
- Al-Ahli Jeddah, next: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat prediction