Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Fateh at 35%, a draw at 34%, and Al Khaleej Saihat at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance according to our model.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Al-Fateh recording three losses and three draws in their last six matches, while Al Khaleej Saihat has three draws, two losses, and one win. The expected goals are close, with Al-Fateh at 1.03 and Al Khaleej Saihat at 0.97. The low percentages for Over 2.5 goals at 32% and both teams to score at 41% suggest that a high-scoring game is less likely.
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat: model vs market
| Source | Al-Fateh | Draw | Al Khaleej Saihat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 32% |
| Published | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | -6% | +3% | +2% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Fateh, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Fateh | 2.39 | 2.25 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.32 | -0.13 |
| Al Khaleej Saihat | 2.74 | 2.83 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (Al-Fateh / Al Khaleej Saihat)
- 0.73 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Al-Fateh / Al Khaleej Saihat)
- 1.17 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Fateh goals. Columns: Al Khaleej Saihat goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Fateh | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Al Khaleej Saihat | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Fateh or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Khaleej Saihat) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Fateh win by 2+ | 15% | 6.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat recent form
Al-Fateh
1W 2D 3L
Al Khaleej Saihat
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Fateh at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Fateh at home only, Al Khaleej Saihat away only.
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al-Fateh 6 · draws 1 · Al Khaleej Saihat 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Al-Fateh | 1-0 | Al Khaleej Saihat | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-12-29 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 0-1 | Al-Fateh | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-04-12 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 1-5 | Al-Fateh | Pro League |
| 2024-11-09 | Al-Fateh | 1-2 | Al Khaleej Saihat | Pro League |
| 2024-03-09 | Al-Fateh | 1-2 | Al Khaleej Saihat | Pro League |
| 2023-09-15 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 1-3 | Al-Fateh | Pro League |
| 2023-04-06 | Al-Fateh | 2-0 | Al Khaleej Saihat | Pro League |
| 2022-10-11 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 1-2 | Al-Fateh | Pro League |
| 2017-04-29 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 1-1 | Al-Fateh | Pro League |
| 2016-12-10 | Al-Fateh | 2-4 | Al Khaleej Saihat | Pro League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah — match page 2026-10-19
- Abha vs Al Kholood — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC 2026-10-19
- Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh 2026-10-20
- Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC — match page 2026-10-20
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC 2026-10-20
- Al-Nassr vs NEOM — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Al-Fateh, previous: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh: odds and pick
- Al-Fateh, next: Al-Fateh v Al Shabab analysis
- Al Khaleej Saihat, previous: Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Fayha analysis
- Al Khaleej Saihat, next: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat prediction