Al-Nassr vs NEOM preview
In the upcoming match between Al-Nassr and NEOM, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Nassr at 50%, while NEOM sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 10% chance of occurring. Al-Nassr has an expected goals figure of 1.75 compared to NEOM's 1.15, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the match could deviate from this forecast. NEOM's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 5 matches, which suggests they can be competitive. Additionally, both teams to score has a probability of 57%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 55%, indicating potential for a more dynamic game than predicted.
Al-Nassr vs NEOM: model vs market
| Source | Al-Nassr | Draw | NEOM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al-Nassr and NEOM expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Al-Nassr / NEOM)
- 1.39 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Al-Nassr / NEOM)
- 0.72 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Nassr vs NEOM score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Nassr goals. Columns: NEOM goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Nassr vs NEOM goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Nassr vs NEOM
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 50% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| NEOM | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Nassr or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or NEOM) | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Nassr and NEOM recent form
Al-Nassr
4W 1D 1L
NEOM
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Nassr at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NEOM away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Nassr at home only, NEOM away only.
Al-Nassr vs NEOM head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Nassr 2 · draws 0 · NEOM 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Al-Nassr | 1-0 | NEOM | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-11-08 | NEOM | 1-3 | Al-Nassr | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Al-Fateh v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page 2026-10-18
- Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah — match page 2026-10-19
- Abha vs Al Kholood — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC 2026-10-19
- Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh 2026-10-20
- Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC — match page 2026-10-20
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Al-Nassr, previous: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr: odds and pick
- Al-Nassr, next: Al-Faisaly FC – Al-Nassr, 2026-10-23
- NEOM, previous: NEOM – Al-Ettifaq, 2026-10-17
- NEOM, next: NEOM vs Abha prediction