Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr preview
In the match between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Faisaly FC at 14%, a draw at 21%, and Al-Nassr at 66%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a probability of 11%. Al-Nassr has a significantly higher expected goals figure of 2.22 compared to Al-Faisaly FC's 0.93, suggesting a strong attacking performance from the visitors.
While the model indicates a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 55%, unexpected factors like Al-Faisaly FC's recent form of W-L-D-D-L-D could impact the outcome. Al-Nassr's recent form of W-D-W-L-W-W shows they are in better shape, but surprises can happen in football.
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr: model vs market
| Source | Al-Faisaly FC | Draw | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 21% | 66% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 14% | 21% | 66% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Al-Faisaly FC / Al-Nassr)
- 0.83 / 1.39
- Defence rating (Al-Faisaly FC / Al-Nassr)
- 1.13 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Faisaly FC goals. Columns: Al-Nassr goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Faisaly FC | 14% | 7.34 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Al-Nassr | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Faisaly FC or draw) | 34% | 2.92 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Nassr) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win by 2+ | 43% | 2.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr recent form
Al-Faisaly FC
1W 3D 2L
Al-Nassr
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Faisaly FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Al-Nassr away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Faisaly FC at home only, Al-Nassr away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha 2026-10-22
- Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab 2026-10-22
- Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page 2026-10-22
- Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah — team news & stats 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Al-Faisaly FC, previous: Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC prediction
- Al-Nassr, previous: Al-Nassr vs NEOM: odds and pick