Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah preview
In the upcoming match between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Diriyah, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Ittihad FC at 48%, a draw at 28%, and Al Diriyah at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance according to our model. Al-Ittihad FC has an expected goals figure of 1.55, while Al Diriyah sits at 1.04, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
However, there are factors that could challenge this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 52%, suggesting that Al Diriyah could find the net, which would affect the expected outcome. Additionally, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the forecast, meaning the match could deviate from expectations.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah: model vs market
| Source | Al-Ittihad FC | Draw | Al Diriyah |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Diriyah expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Al-Ittihad FC / Al Diriyah)
- 1.18 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Al-Ittihad FC / Al Diriyah)
- 1.01 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Ittihad FC goals. Columns: Al Diriyah goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ittihad FC | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Al Diriyah | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Ittihad FC or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Diriyah) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ittihad FC win by 2+ | 25% | 3.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al-Ittihad FC and Al Diriyah recent form
Al-Ittihad FC
4W 1D 1L
Al Diriyah
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Ittihad FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Al Diriyah away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Ittihad FC at home only, Al Diriyah away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha 2026-10-22
- Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab 2026-10-22
- Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page 2026-10-22
- Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr — team news & stats 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Al-Ittihad FC, previous: Al-Ettifaq – Al-Ittihad FC, 2026-10-20
- Al Diriyah, previous: Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh: odds and pick