Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture between Al Diriyah and Al Riyadh, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Diriyah at 43%, while Al Riyadh sits at 27%. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-0, with a 12% chance of this outcome. The expected goals are 1.30 for Al Diriyah and 0.98 for Al Riyadh, suggesting a tighter match.
However, the match could see more goals, with a 40% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score. Al Diriyah's recent form includes two draws and two wins, while Al Riyadh has had a mix of results with two wins and two draws as well. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh: model vs market
| Source | Al Diriyah | Draw | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 31% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.98.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al Diriyah and Al Riyadh expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Al Diriyah / Al Riyadh)
- 0.73 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Al Diriyah / Al Riyadh)
- 0.84 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Diriyah goals. Columns: Al Riyadh goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Diriyah | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Al Riyadh | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Diriyah or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Riyadh) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Diriyah win by 2+ | 20% | 4.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al Diriyah and Al Riyadh recent form
Al Diriyah
2W 2D 2L
Al Riyadh
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Diriyah at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Riyadh away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Diriyah at home only, Al Riyadh away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Al-Fateh v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page 2026-10-18
- Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli Jeddah — match page 2026-10-19
- Abha vs Al Kholood — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC 2026-10-19
- Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC — match page 2026-10-20
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC 2026-10-20
- Al-Nassr vs NEOM — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Al Diriyah, previous: Al Diriyah v Al Taawon analysis
- Al Diriyah, next: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah prediction
- Al Riyadh, previous: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC prediction