Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 9

Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon

· Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Al Diriyah to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al DiriyahDrawAl Taawon

Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl DiriyahDrawAl Taawon
Model54%30%16%
Market50%26%24%
Published51%27%22%
Edge+4%+4%-8%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.66.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Al Diriyah below the model: +4.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al Diriyah, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.03Now 1.84 -0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al Diriyah2.031.84-0.19
Draw3.503.50+0.00
Al Taawon3.353.74+0.39

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al Diriyah and Al Taawon expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.41Al Diriyah
0.66Al Taawon
Total expected goals
2.07
Attack rating (Al Diriyah / Al Taawon)
0.73 / 0.55
Defence rating (Al Diriyah / Al Taawon)
0.84 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.8% 7.2% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 1 16.6% 12.9% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 2 12.5% 8.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 3 5.9% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 2.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Al Diriyah goals. Columns: Al Taawon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 34%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
38%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al Diriyah51%1.97
Draw27%3.71
Al Taawon22%4.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534%2.92
Under 2.566%1.52
Both teams to scoreYes38%2.65
No62%1.61
Double chance1X (Al Diriyah or draw)78%1.29
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Al Taawon)49%2.03
Handicap -1Al Diriyah win by 2+28%3.63
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al Diriyah and Al Taawon recent form

Al Diriyah 2W 2D 2L
Al Taawon 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al Diriyah at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Al Taawon away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al Diriyah at home only, Al Taawon away only.

Expected lineups

Al Diriyah lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 97 Amin Al Bukhari
  2. 16 Hussain Al Sibyani
  3. 99 C. Mbemba
  4. 19 B. Djimsiti
  5. 2 Abdulaziz Al Faraj
  6. 20 E. Millot
  7. 5 I. Gueye
  8. 14 Óscar Rodríguez
  9. 10 A. Boulbina
  10. 29 D. Núñez
  11. 17 C. Diandy

Bench: Sultan Al Farhan, T. Wadi, M. Hameran, Abdullah Al Zaid, Hussain Al Qahtani, Meshari Al Nemer, Qassem Lajami, Abdulelah Al Malki

Al Taawon lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Mailson
  2. 32 Muteb Al Mufarrij
  3. 5 Z. Belaïd
  4. 40 Ibrahim Mahnashi
  5. 88 M. Petkov
  6. 18 A. El Mahdioui
  7. 16 Faris Al Ghamdi
  8. 70 A. Hendi
  9. 47 Y. El Bahraoui
  10. 7 Mohammed Al Kuwaykibi
  11. 9 A. Hamed Allah

Bench: Nasser Al Haleel, Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji, P. Guiagon, N. Bajrami, Mohammed Al Aqel, Rakan Al Tulayhi, Abdullah Al Jadani, Mohammed Al Saedi, Awn Al Saluli

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match