Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 8

Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah

· Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh· Referee Mohammed Sami Al-Ismail

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Al-Nassr to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-NassrDrawAl Diriyah

Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-NassrDrawAl Diriyah
Model49%29%22%
Market68%18%14%
Published63%20%16%
Edge-5%+3%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.93.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al-Nassr, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.45Now 1.35 -0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al-Nassr1.451.35-0.09
Draw4.755.17+0.42
Al Diriyah5.426.34+0.92

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al-Nassr and Al Diriyah expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48Al-Nassr
0.93Al Diriyah
Total expected goals
2.42
Attack rating (Al-Nassr / Al Diriyah)
1.38 / 0.81
Defence rating (Al-Nassr / Al Diriyah)
0.81 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 7.1% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 1 12.0% 13.6% 5.8% 1.8% 0.5% 2 9.8% 9.2% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4% 3 4.9% 4.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.5% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Al-Nassr goals. Columns: Al Diriyah goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Nassr63%1.58
Draw20%4.88
Al Diriyah16%6.09
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.30
Under 2.556%1.77
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.08
No52%1.93
Double chance1X (Al-Nassr or draw)84%1.20
12 (either side)80%1.26
X2 (draw or Al Diriyah)37%2.71
Handicap -1Al-Nassr win by 2+25%3.96
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Nassr and Al Diriyah recent form

Al-Nassr 4W 1D 1L
Al Diriyah 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Nassr at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Al Diriyah away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Nassr at home only, Al Diriyah away only.

Expected lineups

Al-Nassr lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 24 Bento
  2. 70 Awad Aman
  3. 26 Íñigo Martínez
  4. 3 M. Simakan
  5. 12 Nawaf Boushal
  6. 10 S. Mané
  7. 17 Abdullah Al Khaibari
  8. 11 Samú Costa
  9. 21 K. Coman
  10. 7 Cristiano Ronaldo
  11. 79 João Félix

Bench: Nader Al Sharari, Saad Al Nasser, Abdullah Al Hamdan, Sami Al Naji, Ayman Yahya, Majed Qasheesh, Saad Haqawi, A. Sufyani

Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Al-Nassr 1 · draws 0 · Al Diriyah 0.

Al-NassrDrawsAl Diriyah
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-18Al Diriyah1-4Al-NassrKing's Cup

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match