Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah preview
Al-Nassr hosts Al Diriyah with a 60% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 12% of the time. Al-Nassr's expected goals stand at 1.50, while Al Diriyah's is 0.92, indicating a potential advantage for Al-Nassr.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score has a probability of 48%, suggesting that Al Diriyah could find the net. Additionally, Al-Nassr's recent form shows some inconsistency, with a draw in their latest match. The confidence grade is C, reflecting the blended probabilities with market odds, indicating that outcomes may vary.
Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah: model vs market
| Source | Al-Nassr | Draw | Al Diriyah |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | -14% | +9% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Nassr, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Nassr | 1.45 | 1.44 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.00 |
| Al Diriyah | 5.42 | 5.42 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Nassr and Al Diriyah expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Al-Nassr / Al Diriyah)
- 1.38 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Al-Nassr / Al Diriyah)
- 0.81 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Nassr goals. Columns: Al Diriyah goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Al Diriyah | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Nassr or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Diriyah) | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win by 2+ | 26% | 3.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Nassr and Al Diriyah recent form
Al-Nassr
4W 1D 1L
Al Diriyah
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Nassr at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Diriyah away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Nassr at home only, Al Diriyah away only.
Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Al-Nassr 1 · draws 0 · Al Diriyah 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Al Diriyah | 1-4 | Al-Nassr | King's Cup |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC 2026-10-09
- Al-Fateh v Al-Ahli Jeddah — match page 2026-10-09
- Al-Hazm v NEOM — match page 2026-10-10
- Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat 2026-10-10
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh 2026-10-11
- Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Al Shabab vs Al Taawon — team news & stats 2026-10-11