Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 8

Al-Hazm vs NEOM

· Al Hazm Club Stadium, Ar Rass· Referee Fareeh Al Jaloud

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was NEOM to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-HazmDrawNEOM

Al-Hazm vs NEOM: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-HazmDrawNEOM
Model23%29%49%
Market23%24%53%
Published23%25%52%
Edge0%+1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Al-Hazm vs NEOM odds movement

Median bookmaker price on NEOM, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.62Now 1.73 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al-Hazm4.624.04-0.58
Draw4.123.84-0.28
NEOM1.621.73+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al-Hazm and NEOM expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.95Al-Hazm
1.49NEOM
Total expected goals
2.44
Attack rating (Al-Hazm / NEOM)
0.77 / 1.16
Defence rating (Al-Hazm / NEOM)
0.91 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Hazm vs NEOM score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.0% 11.8% 9.7% 4.8% 2.5% 1 7.0% 13.6% 9.2% 4.6% 2.4% 2 3.9% 5.8% 4.4% 2.2% 1.1% 3 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 4+ 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Al-Hazm goals. Columns: NEOM goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Hazm vs NEOM goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Hazm vs NEOM

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Hazm23%4.38
Draw25%3.97
NEOM52%1.92
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.27
Under 2.556%1.79
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.05
No51%1.95
Double chance1X (Al-Hazm or draw)48%2.08
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or NEOM)77%1.30
Handicap -1NEOM win by 2+25%3.97
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Hazm and NEOM recent form

Al-Hazm 1W 2D 3L
NEOM 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Hazm at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.

NEOM away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Hazm at home only, NEOM away only.

Expected lineups

Al-Hazm lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 36 J. Staněk
  2. 34 Abdulrahman Al-Dakheel
  3. 17 Bonheur Mugisha
  4. 4 Sultan Tanker
  5. 27 Ahmed Al Nakhli
  6. 24 A. Bah
  7. 28 S. Bendebka
  8. 2 Saud Al Rashed
  9. 29 Aboubacar Diakite
  10. 10 A. Sayoud
  11. 22 Abdul Aziz Sulaiman Al Dhuwayhi

Bench: A. Ben Hmida, Mohammed Issa, M. Konaté, Abdullah Al Shanqiti, Ibrahim Zaid, M. Al Hamdani, K. Abduljawad, Jaser Ateeq

NEOM lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 M. Bułka
  2. 27 Islam Hawsawi
  3. 44 N. Zézé
  4. 5 M. Sarr
  5. 15 Abdulmalik Al Oyayari
  6. 7 G. Masouras
  7. 72 A. Koné
  8. 23 V. Vada
  9. 77 Muhannad Al Saad
  10. 70 Haroune Camara
  11. 91 A. Lacazette

Bench: Mohammed Al Burayk, Khalifah Al Dawsari, A. Al Hassan, Faisal Al Ghamdi, S. Benrahma, Khalil Al Absi, Abdulrahman Dagriri, Muhammad Al Dosari, Khalid Al Rammah

Al-Hazm vs NEOM head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Al-Hazm 1 · draws 1 · NEOM 3.

Al-HazmDrawsNEOM
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-28NEOM1-1Al-HazmSaudi Arabia Pro League
2026-01-04Al-Hazm1-2NEOMSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-09-23Al-Hazm2-1NEOMKing's Cup
2025-02-24Al-Hazm0-2NEOMDivision 1
2024-10-05NEOM2-0Al-HazmDivision 1

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match