Al-Hazm vs NEOM preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League match between Al-Hazm and NEOM, the 1X2 probabilities show NEOM at 53%, making them the favorites. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance. Al-Hazm's recent form includes two draws and four losses, while NEOM has won three of their last six matches.
The market suggests a 44% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score. Al-Hazm has expected goals of 0.95, while NEOM's expected goals stand at 1.48. If NEOM fails to convert their chances or Al-Hazm performs better than expected, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
Al-Hazm vs NEOM: model vs market
| Source | Al-Hazm | Draw | NEOM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 29% | 48% |
| Market | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Published | 23% | 25% | 53% |
| Edge | 0% | +6% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al-Hazm vs NEOM odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NEOM, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Hazm | 4.62 | 4.05 | -0.57 |
| Draw | 4.12 | 3.98 | -0.14 |
| NEOM | 1.62 | 1.71 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Hazm and NEOM expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Al-Hazm / NEOM)
- 0.77 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Al-Hazm / NEOM)
- 0.91 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Hazm vs NEOM score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Hazm goals. Columns: NEOM goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Hazm vs NEOM goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Hazm vs NEOM
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Hazm | 23% | 4.38 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| NEOM | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Hazm or draw) | 47% | 2.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or NEOM) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | NEOM win by 2+ | 25% | 4.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al-Hazm and NEOM recent form
Al-Hazm
1W 2D 3L
NEOM
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Hazm at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
NEOM away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Hazm at home only, NEOM away only.
Al-Hazm vs NEOM head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Hazm 0 · draws 1 · NEOM 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | NEOM | 1-1 | Al-Hazm | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2026-01-04 | Al-Hazm | 1-2 | NEOM | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
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