Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture between Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC, the key number is Al-Qadisiyah FC's 61% probability of winning. They have been in strong form, with four wins in their last five matches. Al Kholood, on the other hand, has only one win in their last six games, which could impact their performance.
The match could see Over 2.5 goals, with a 63% likelihood, and both teams to score at 61%. However, if Al Kholood improves their attack and manages to capitalize on their chances, they could challenge Al-Qadisiyah FC's dominance. The expected goals suggest Al Kholood could score 1.16 while Al-Qadisiyah FC is expected to net 2.11.
Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC: model vs market
| Source | Al Kholood | Draw | Al-Qadisiyah FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 22% | 58% |
| Market | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Published | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Qadisiyah FC, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Kholood | 5.60 | 5.15 | -0.45 |
| Draw | 4.78 | 4.43 | -0.35 |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1.42 | 1.50 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.27
- Attack rating (Al Kholood / Al-Qadisiyah FC)
- 0.88 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Al Kholood / Al-Qadisiyah FC)
- 0.98 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Kholood goals. Columns: Al-Qadisiyah FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Kholood | 18% | 5.49 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Kholood or draw) | 39% | 2.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC win by 2+ | 36% | 2.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC recent form
Al Kholood
3W 2D 1L
Al-Qadisiyah FC
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Kholood at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Qadisiyah FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Kholood at home only, Al-Qadisiyah FC away only.
Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al Kholood 1 · draws 1 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Al Kholood | 1-4 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-11-06 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4-0 | Al Kholood | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-05-02 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4-1 | Al Kholood | Pro League |
| 2024-12-06 | Al Kholood | 0-3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | Pro League |
| 2024-03-09 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 2-0 | Al Kholood | Division 1 |
| 2023-10-25 | Al Kholood | 0-2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | Division 1 |
| 2023-05-02 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1-0 | Al Kholood | Division 1 |
| 2022-12-20 | Al Kholood | 2-0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | Division 1 |
| 2022-02-23 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1-0 | Al Kholood | Division 1 |
| 2021-10-12 | Al Kholood | 1-1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | Division 1 |
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