Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 8

Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

· Al Hazm Club Stadium, Ar Rass· Referee Abdullah Al-Shehri

Full time0 – 5

Alin prediction was Al-Qadisiyah FC to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al KholoodDrawAl-Qadisiyah FC

Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl KholoodDrawAl-Qadisiyah FC
Model19%22%58%
Market18%21%61%
Published18%21%61%
Edge0%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.16.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al-Qadisiyah FC, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.42Now 1.50 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al Kholood5.605.22-0.38
Draw4.784.42-0.36
Al-Qadisiyah FC1.421.50+0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.16Al Kholood
2.11Al-Qadisiyah FC
Total expected goals
3.27
Attack rating (Al Kholood / Al-Qadisiyah FC)
0.88 / 1.52
Defence rating (Al Kholood / Al-Qadisiyah FC)
0.98 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 7.1% 8.5% 6.0% 5.1% 1 3.5% 10.2% 9.8% 6.9% 5.9% 2 2.6% 5.4% 5.7% 4.0% 3.4% 3 1.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.5% 1.3% 4+ 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Al Kholood goals. Columns: Al-Qadisiyah FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al Kholood18%5.54
Draw21%4.70
Al-Qadisiyah FC61%1.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.74
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.58
Double chance1X (Al Kholood or draw)39%2.54
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC)82%1.22
Handicap -1Al-Qadisiyah FC win by 2+36%2.74
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC recent form

Al Kholood 3W 2D 1L
Al-Qadisiyah FC 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al Kholood at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Al-Qadisiyah FC away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al Kholood at home only, Al-Qadisiyah FC away only.

Expected lineups

Al Kholood lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Hamed Abdullah Yousef
  2. 7 Sultan Al Shehri
  3. 25 Mansour Camara
  4. 47 Abdulrahman Al Obaid
  5. 24 O. Abdulghani
  6. 8 S. Cissé
  7. 6 J. Buckley
  8. 11 Coba
  9. 10 Iker Kortajarena
  10. 70 Muhammad Sawan
  11. 22 J. Domingues

Bench: Yaseen Al Zubaidi, Mohammed Mazyad Alshammari, Abdulrahman Al Dosari, Muhannad Al Yahya, R. Jaman, Mohammed Al Rashidi, A. Essomba, Guga

Al-Qadisiyah FC lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 K. Casteels
  2. 17 G. Álvarez
  3. 6 Nacho
  4. 4 Jehad Abdullatif Ahm
  5. 22 C. Bonsu Baah
  6. 10 Musab Al Juwayr
  7. 14 T. Reijnders
  8. 5 J. Weigl
  9. 2 Mohammed Abu Al Shamat
  10. 33 J. Quiñones
  11. 32 M. Retegui

Bench: Turki Al Ammar, Abdullah Al Salem, Yasir Al Shahrani, Mohammed Al Qahtani, Abdulmalik Al-Jaber, Haitham Asiri, E. Houssa, Ahmed Al Kassar, A. Al Siyahi

Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Al Kholood 1 · draws 1 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 8.

Al KholoodDrawsAl-Qadisiyah FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-07Al Kholood1-4Al-Qadisiyah FCSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-11-06Al-Qadisiyah FC4-0Al KholoodSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-05-02Al-Qadisiyah FC4-1Al KholoodPro League
2024-12-06Al Kholood0-3Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
2024-03-09Al-Qadisiyah FC2-0Al KholoodDivision 1
2023-10-25Al Kholood0-2Al-Qadisiyah FCDivision 1
2023-05-02Al-Qadisiyah FC1-0Al KholoodDivision 1
2022-12-20Al Kholood2-0Al-Qadisiyah FCDivision 1
2022-02-23Al-Qadisiyah FC1-0Al KholoodDivision 1
2021-10-12Al Kholood1-1Al-Qadisiyah FCDivision 1

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match