Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC: model vs market
| Source | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Draw | Al-Ittihad FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 19% | 12% |
| Market | 73% | 15% | 11% |
| Published | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| Edge | -5% | +4% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 0.90.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1.25 | 1.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.95 | 5.95 | +0.00 |
| Al-Ittihad FC | 8.00 | 8.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.23
- Attack rating (Al-Hilal Saudi FC / Al-Ittihad FC)
- 1.69 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Al-Hilal Saudi FC / Al-Ittihad FC)
- 0.55 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Hilal Saudi FC goals. Columns: Al-Ittihad FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 72% | 1.39 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.10 | |
| Al-Ittihad FC | 12% | 8.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Ittihad FC) | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC win by 2+ | 46% | 2.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC recent form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
5W 0D 1L
Al-Ittihad FC
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Al-Ittihad FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home only, Al-Ittihad FC away only.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 · draws 1 · Al-Ittihad FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1-1 | Al-Ittihad FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-10-24 | Al-Ittihad FC | 0-2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
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