Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 8

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC

· Kingdom Arena, Riyadh· Referee Khalid Al-Turais

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-Hilal Saudi FCDrawAl-Ittihad FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-Hilal Saudi FCDrawAl-Ittihad FC
Model68%20%12%
Market73%16%11%
Published72%17%11%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.90.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.25Now 1.25 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al-Hilal Saudi FC1.251.25+0.00
Draw5.955.75-0.20
Al-Ittihad FC8.008.25+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.31Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.90Al-Ittihad FC
Total expected goals
3.22
Attack rating (Al-Hilal Saudi FC / Al-Ittihad FC)
1.69 / 1.16
Defence rating (Al-Hilal Saudi FC / Al-Ittihad FC)
0.55 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 2.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 1 8.4% 9.2% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 2 10.7% 9.7% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 3 8.3% 7.5% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 8.2% 7.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3%

Rows: Al-Hilal Saudi FC goals. Columns: Al-Ittihad FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Hilal Saudi FC72%1.39
Draw17%5.95
Al-Ittihad FC11%8.79
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.60
Under 2.538%2.66
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.84
No46%2.20
Double chance1X (Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw)89%1.13
12 (either side)83%1.20
X2 (draw or Al-Ittihad FC)28%3.55
Handicap -1Al-Hilal Saudi FC win by 2+46%2.18
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC recent form

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W 0D 1L
Al-Ittihad FC 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Al-Ittihad FC away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home only, Al-Ittihad FC away only.

Expected lineups

Al-Hilal Saudi FC lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 37 Y. Bounou
  2. 19 T. Hernández
  3. 3 K. Koulibaly
  4. 87 Hassan Tambakti
  5. 2 Mohammed Mater Mohsin Mahzari
  6. 38 C. Summerville
  7. 6 Nasser Al Dawsari
  8. 8 Rúben Neves
  9. 70 Saïmon Bouabré
  10. 11 O. Watkins
  11. 7 Gabriel Martinelli

Bench: Murad Al Hawsawi, Moteb Al Harbi, Sultan Mandash, Mohamed Kanno, Mohammed Al Owais, S. Dahal, Nawaf Al Habashi, Ali Lajami, Suhayb Al Zaid

Al-Ittihad FC lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 P. Rajković
  2. 25 F. Abdi
  3. 2 Danilo Pereira
  4. 4 J. Šimić
  5. 13 Muhannad Al Shanqiti
  6. 34 S. Bergwijn
  7. 30 D. Lopy
  8. 10 H. Aouar
  9. 27 Ahmed Al Ghamdi
  10. 21 Y. En-Nesyri
  11. 22 Marwan Al Sahafi

Bench: Saad Al Mosa, Mukhtar Ali, Saleh Al Shehri, G. Wijnaldum, Farhah Al Shamrani, Ahmed Al Julaydan, Muath Faqeehi, Mohammed Al Absi, Rakan Kaabi

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 · draws 2 · Al-Ittihad FC 1.

Al-Hilal Saudi FCDrawsAl-Ittihad FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-21Al-Hilal Saudi FC1-1Al-Ittihad FCSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-10-24Al-Ittihad FC0-2Al-Hilal Saudi FCSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-02-22Al-Ittihad FC4-1Al-Hilal Saudi FCPro League
2025-01-07Al-Hilal Saudi FC2-2Al-Ittihad FCKing's Cup
2024-09-21Al-Hilal Saudi FC3-1Al-Ittihad FCPro League
2024-04-30Al-Ittihad FC1-2Al-Hilal Saudi FCKing's Cup
2024-04-11Al-Ittihad FC1-4Al-Hilal Saudi FCSuper Cup
2024-03-12Al-Ittihad FC0-2Al-Hilal Saudi FCAFC Champions League
2024-03-05Al-Hilal Saudi FC2-0Al-Ittihad FCAFC Champions League
2024-03-01Al-Hilal Saudi FC3-1Al-Ittihad FCPro League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match