Al Shabab vs Al Taawon: model vs market
| Source | Al Shabab | Draw | Al Taawon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Published | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | +2% | +4% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.98.
- The market prices Al Shabab below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Shabab, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shabab | 2.24 | 2.21 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.61 | -0.03 |
| Al Taawon | 2.91 | 2.89 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Shabab and Al Taawon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.35
- Attack rating (Al Shabab / Al Taawon)
- 0.75 / 0.62
- Defence rating (Al Shabab / Al Taawon)
- 1.13 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Shabab goals. Columns: Al Taawon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shabab | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Al Taawon | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.09 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Shabab or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Taawon) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Shabab win by 2+ | 22% | 4.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Shabab and Al Taawon recent form
Al Shabab
0W 4D 2L
Al Taawon
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Shabab at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Taawon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Shabab at home only, Al Taawon away only.
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al Shabab 0 · draws 0 · Al Taawon 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Al Shabab | 1-5 | Al Taawon | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2026-01-09 | Al Taawon | 2-0 | Al Shabab | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
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