Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 8

Al Shabab vs Al Taawon

· SHG Arena, Riyadh· Referee Khalid Al-Ahmari

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Al Shabab to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al ShababDrawAl Taawon

Al Shabab vs Al Taawon: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl ShababDrawAl Taawon
Model44%30%26%
Market42%25%32%
Published43%26%31%
Edge0%+1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.99.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Al Shabab vs Al Taawon odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al Shabab, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.24Now 2.17 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al Shabab2.242.17-0.07
Draw3.653.65+0.01
Al Taawon2.912.84-0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al Shabab and Al Taawon expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.36Al Shabab
0.99Al Taawon
Total expected goals
2.35
Attack rating (Al Shabab / Al Taawon)
0.75 / 0.62
Defence rating (Al Shabab / Al Taawon)
1.13 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al Shabab vs Al Taawon score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.9% 8.2% 4.7% 1.5% 0.5% 1 11.7% 14.1% 6.3% 2.1% 0.6% 2 8.8% 8.7% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4% 3 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Al Shabab goals. Columns: Al Taawon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al Shabab vs Al Taawon goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al Shabab43%2.34
Draw26%3.78
Al Taawon31%3.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.40
Under 2.558%1.71
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.09
No52%1.92
Double chance1X (Al Shabab or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Al Taawon)57%1.75
Handicap -1Al Shabab win by 2+21%4.67
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al Shabab and Al Taawon recent form

Al Shabab 0W 4D 2L
Al Taawon 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al Shabab at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Al Taawon away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al Shabab at home only, Al Taawon away only.

Expected lineups

Al Shabab lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 M. Diaw
  2. 12 S. Al Anzi
  3. 55 Ali Al Bulayhi
  4. 4 T. Jedvaj
  5. 17 Mohammed Fuad Ibrahim Al Thani
  6. 10 Y. Carrasco
  7. 29 Y. Adli
  8. 8 J. Brownhill
  9. 37 A. Matuq
  10. 49 Ricardo Mathias
  11. 9 Roger Martínez

Bench: Mohammed Al Shwirekh, M. Barry, Awad Al Nashri, Dhari Al Anazi, Abdullah Al Hawsawi, Mohammed Al Mahasneh, Ali Al Asmari, Mourad Khodari, Hamad Al-Khorayef

Al Taawon lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Mailson
  2. 88 M. Petkov
  3. 32 Muteb Al Mufarrij
  4. 5 Z. Belaïd
  5. 40 Ibrahim Mahnashi
  6. 16 Faris Al Ghamdi
  7. 10 N. Bajrami
  8. 18 A. El Mahdioui
  9. 8 P. Guiagon
  10. 9 A. Hamed Allah
  11. 7 Mohammed Al Kuwaykibi

Bench: Nasser Al Haleel, Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji, Mohammed Al Aqel, Rakan Al Tulayhi, Abdullah Al Jadani, Mohammed Al Saedi, Y. El Bahraoui, A. Hendi, Awn Al Saluli

Al Shabab vs Al Taawon head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Al Shabab 2 · draws 3 · Al Taawon 5.

Al ShababDrawsAl Taawon
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03Al Shabab1-5Al TaawonSaudi Arabia Pro League
2026-01-09Al Taawon2-0Al ShababSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-02-22Al Taawon2-2Al ShababPro League
2024-09-21Al Shabab1-0Al TaawonPro League
2024-05-18Al Taawon1-0Al ShababPro League
2023-12-02Al Shabab1-2Al TaawonPro League
2023-05-27Al Shabab0-3Al TaawonPro League
2023-01-20Al Taawon1-1Al ShababPro League
2022-06-23Al Taawon1-1Al ShababPro League
2021-12-27Al Shabab3-1Al TaawonPro League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match