Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 8

Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

· Maydan Tamweel Al-Oula, Al-Hasa· Referee Abdullah Al Owaidan

Full time0 – 4

Alin prediction was Al-Ahli Jeddah to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 2

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-FatehDrawAl-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-FatehDrawAl-Ahli Jeddah
Model14%22%64%
Market15%19%66%
Published15%20%65%
Edge0%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al-Ahli Jeddah, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.40Now 1.40 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al-Fateh5.926.00+0.08
Draw4.954.80-0.15
Al-Ahli Jeddah1.401.40+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.85Al-Fateh
2.05Al-Ahli Jeddah
Total expected goals
2.90
Attack rating (Al-Fateh / Al-Ahli Jeddah)
0.63 / 1.50
Defence rating (Al-Fateh / Al-Ahli Jeddah)
0.96 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 10.3% 11.5% 7.9% 6.5% 1 3.7% 10.6% 9.8% 6.7% 5.5% 2 2.0% 4.1% 4.2% 2.9% 2.4% 3 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 4+ 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%

Rows: Al-Fateh goals. Columns: Al-Ahli Jeddah goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Fateh15%6.69
Draw20%5.02
Al-Ahli Jeddah65%1.54
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.81
Under 2.545%2.24
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.96
No49%2.04
Double chance1X (Al-Fateh or draw)35%2.87
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah)85%1.18
Handicap -1Al-Ahli Jeddah win by 2+41%2.46
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah recent form

Al-Fateh 0W 3D 3L
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Fateh at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Fateh at home only, Al-Ahli Jeddah away only.

Expected lineups

Al-Fateh lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 A. Šemper
  2. 78 Abdulaziz Al Suwailem
  3. 17 M. Saâdane
  4. 3 K. Boateng
  5. 22 Abdul Rahman Al Khaibari
  6. 28 Z. Youssouf
  7. 8 M. Lixandru
  8. 6 Ali Al Hassan
  9. 10 L. Haraslín
  10. 9 W. Kanga
  11. 11 M. Batna

Bench: Fahad Al Zubaidi, Abdulaziz Al Fawaz, M. Al Sahihi, Saad Al Sharfa, Faisal Al Abdulwahed, Sattam Al Tumbukti, Waleed Al Anzi

Al-Ahli Jeddah lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Abdulrahman Al Sanbi
  2. 31 Saad Yaslam
  3. 5 Mohammed Bakor
  4. 28 M. Demiral
  5. 15 Saeed Baattia
  6. 30 Ziyad Al Johani
  7. 6 V. Atangana Edoa
  8. 13 Galeno
  9. 20 Matheus Gonçalves
  10. 7 Trincão
  11. 17 I. Toney

Bench: E. Spertsyan, Feras Al Brikan, Meshal Al Mutairi, A. Bondarenko, Abdullah Radif, Mohammed Yousef, Rayane Hamidou, Waheb Saleh, Abdullah Abdo

Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Al-Fateh 4 · draws 2 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.

Al-FatehDrawsAl-Ahli Jeddah
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-06Al-Ahli Jeddah3-1Al-FatehSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-12-26Al-Fateh2-1Al-Ahli JeddahSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-02-07Al-Ahli Jeddah2-0Al-FatehPro League
2024-08-27Al-Fateh1-0Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
2024-03-02Al-Ahli Jeddah1-1Al-FatehPro League
2023-09-02Al-Fateh5-1Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
2022-02-11Al-Fateh0-1Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
2021-09-17Al-Ahli Jeddah1-1Al-FatehPro League
2021-03-20Al-Fateh4-1Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
2020-12-22Al-Ahli Jeddah1-0Al-FatehPro League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match