Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture between Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah, the key number is Al-Ahli Jeddah's 65% probability to win. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 55% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance for both teams to score. Al-Fateh's expected goals stand at 0.86, while Al-Ahli Jeddah's is significantly higher at 2.04.
However, the recent form shows Al-Fateh with five matches without a win (L-L-D-D-D-L) and Al-Ahli Jeddah alternating between wins and losses (W-L-W-L-L-W). This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making it possible for Al-Fateh to surprise despite their lower probabilities.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: model vs market
| Source | Al-Fateh | Draw | Al-Ahli Jeddah |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| Market | 16% | 19% | 66% |
| Published | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| Edge | -2% | +4% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Ahli Jeddah, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Fateh | 5.92 | 5.92 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.95 | 4.95 | +0.00 |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Al-Fateh / Al-Ahli Jeddah)
- 0.63 / 1.50
- Defence rating (Al-Fateh / Al-Ahli Jeddah)
- 0.96 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Fateh goals. Columns: Al-Ahli Jeddah goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Fateh | 15% | 6.60 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.12 | |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Fateh or draw) | 35% | 2.88 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah win by 2+ | 40% | 2.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah recent form
Al-Fateh
0W 3D 3L
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Fateh at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Fateh at home only, Al-Ahli Jeddah away only.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al-Fateh 4 · draws 2 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 3-1 | Al-Fateh | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-12-26 | Al-Fateh | 2-1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-02-07 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2-0 | Al-Fateh | Pro League |
| 2024-08-27 | Al-Fateh | 1-0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League |
| 2024-03-02 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1-1 | Al-Fateh | Pro League |
| 2023-09-02 | Al-Fateh | 5-1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League |
| 2022-02-11 | Al-Fateh | 0-1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League |
| 2021-09-17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1-1 | Al-Fateh | Pro League |
| 2021-03-20 | Al-Fateh | 4-1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League |
| 2020-12-22 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1-0 | Al-Fateh | Pro League |
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