Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh: model vs market
| Source | Al-Fayha | Draw | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Published | 43% | 29% | 29% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Fayha, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Fayha | 2.12 | 2.12 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Al Riyadh | 3.29 | 3.29 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Al-Fayha / Al Riyadh)
- 0.73 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Al-Fayha / Al Riyadh)
- 1.03 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Fayha goals. Columns: Al Riyadh goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Fayha | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Al Riyadh | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Fayha or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Riyadh) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Fayha win by 2+ | 19% | 5.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh recent form
Al-Fayha
1W 3D 2L
Al Riyadh
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Fayha at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
Al Riyadh away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Fayha at home only, Al Riyadh away only.
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Fayha 1 · draws 1 · Al Riyadh 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Al-Fayha | 4-2 | Al Riyadh | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2026-01-10 | Al Riyadh | 1-1 | Al-Fayha | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
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