Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 8

Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh

· Al Majma’a Sport City, Madimaa· Referee Abdullah Yahya Zarban

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Al-Fayha to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-FayhaDrawAl Riyadh

Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-FayhaDrawAl Riyadh
Model39%29%32%
Market44%28%28%
Published43%28%29%
Edge-1%0%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al-Fayha, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.12Now 2.08 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al-Fayha2.122.08-0.04
Draw3.253.28+0.04
Al Riyadh3.293.25-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.36Al-Fayha
1.21Al Riyadh
Total expected goals
2.57
Attack rating (Al-Fayha / Al Riyadh)
0.73 / 0.82
Defence rating (Al-Fayha / Al Riyadh)
1.03 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 8.0% 5.6% 2.3% 0.9% 1 9.2% 13.9% 7.6% 3.1% 1.2% 2 7.1% 8.6% 5.2% 2.1% 0.8% 3 3.2% 3.9% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 1.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Al-Fayha goals. Columns: Al Riyadh goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Fayha43%2.34
Draw28%3.55
Al Riyadh29%3.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.11
Under 2.553%1.90
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.87
No47%2.14
Double chance1X (Al-Fayha or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Al Riyadh)57%1.75
Handicap -1Al-Fayha win by 2+19%5.39
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh recent form

Al-Fayha 1W 3D 2L
Al Riyadh 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Fayha at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

Al Riyadh away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Fayha at home only, Al Riyadh away only.

Expected lineups

Al-Fayha lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 52 O. Mosquera
  2. 24 Ahmed Bamasud
  3. 25 O. Colley
  4. 2 Mukhir Al Rashidi
  5. 22 Mohammed Al Baqawi
  6. 30 Alfa Semedo
  7. 5 Hugo Moura
  8. 6 Ali Al Hussain
  9. 10 F. Sakala
  10. 17 Lázaro
  11. 23 Jason

Bench: Abdulraoof Al-Deqeel, Nawaf Al-Harthi, Malek Al Abdulmanam, Turki Al Jaadi, Mansor Al Beshe, Ziyad Al Sahafi, Yago Santana, Fahad Majed Alhubayshi, R. Enad

Al Riyadh lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 82 M. Borjan
  2. 12 Sulaiman Hazazi
  3. 26 R. Abascal
  4. 5 Hossam Majrashi
  5. 2 Sultan Alessa
  6. 6 K. Keita
  7. 14 Essam Bahri
  8. 43 B. Mensah
  9. 22 V. Lekhal
  10. 10 T. Okou
  11. 11 H. Al Ali

Bench: Y. M. Al Musa, Trézéguet, Osama Al Bowardi, Hussain Al-Raqwani, A. M. Al Harthi, Hussain Qasim, Awad Dahal, F. Al Jayzani, Emad Fida

Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Al-Fayha 4 · draws 3 · Al Riyadh 0.

Al-FayhaDrawsAl Riyadh
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-04Al-Fayha4-2Al RiyadhSaudi Arabia Pro League
2026-01-10Al Riyadh1-1Al-FayhaSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-02-26Al Riyadh0-0Al-FayhaPro League
2024-09-29Al-Fayha2-0Al RiyadhPro League
2024-03-15Al-Fayha1-1Al RiyadhPro League
2023-09-26Al Riyadh1-2Al-FayhaKing's Cup
2023-09-22Al Riyadh1-3Al-FayhaPro League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match