Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat: model vs market
| Source | Al-Ettifaq | Draw | Al Khaleej Saihat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Published | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | +14% | -2% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Al-Ettifaq below the model: +14.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Ettifaq, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ettifaq | 1.98 | 1.94 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.63 | 3.63 | +0.00 |
| Al Khaleej Saihat | 3.38 | 3.42 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Al-Ettifaq / Al Khaleej Saihat)
- 1.07 / 0.60
- Defence rating (Al-Ettifaq / Al Khaleej Saihat)
- 1.00 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Ettifaq goals. Columns: Al Khaleej Saihat goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ettifaq | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Al Khaleej Saihat | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Ettifaq or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Khaleej Saihat) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ettifaq win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat recent form
Al-Ettifaq
2W 2D 2L
Al Khaleej Saihat
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Ettifaq at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Ettifaq at home only, Al Khaleej Saihat away only.
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Ettifaq 1 · draws 0 · Al Khaleej Saihat 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 0-5 | Al-Ettifaq | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2026-01-12 | Al-Ettifaq | 1-2 | Al Khaleej Saihat | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
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