Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 9

NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq

· King Khalid Sport City Stadium, Tabuk

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was NEOM to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NEOMDrawAl-Ettifaq

NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNEOMDrawAl-Ettifaq
Model48%27%25%
Market51%25%25%
Published50%25%25%
Edge-2%+2%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.15.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq odds movement

Median bookmaker price on NEOM, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.96Now 1.80 -0.16
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
NEOM1.961.80-0.16
Draw3.653.67+0.02
Al-Ettifaq3.343.71+0.37

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

NEOM and Al-Ettifaq expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.67NEOM
1.15Al-Ettifaq
Total expected goals
2.82
Attack rating (NEOM / Al-Ettifaq)
1.11 / 1.01
Defence rating (NEOM / Al-Ettifaq)
0.81 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.1% 5.7% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6% 1 8.8% 12.6% 6.6% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.3% 9.6% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.6% 5.3% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 2.8% 3.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: NEOM goals. Columns: Al-Ettifaq goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2NEOM50%2.00
Draw25%3.96
Al-Ettifaq25%4.04
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.87
Under 2.546%2.15
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.77
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (NEOM or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Al-Ettifaq)50%2.00
Handicap -1NEOM win by 2+26%3.79
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

NEOM and Al-Ettifaq recent form

NEOM 3W 1D 2L
Al-Ettifaq 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

NEOM at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Al-Ettifaq away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: NEOM at home only, Al-Ettifaq away only.

Expected lineups

NEOM lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 M. Bułka
  2. 27 Islam Hawsawi
  3. 44 N. Zézé
  4. 5 M. Sarr
  5. 4 Khalifah Al Dawsari
  6. 19 Mohannad Abu Taha
  7. 23 V. Vada
  8. 15 Abdulmalik Al Oyayari
  9. 7 G. Masouras
  10. 91 A. Lacazette
  11. 10 S. Benrahma

Bench: Mohammed Al Burayk, A. Al Hassan, Faisal Al Ghamdi, Khalil Al Absi, Abdulrahman Dagriri, Muhammad Al Dosari, Haroune Camara, Khalid Al Rammah, Muhannad Al Saad

Al-Ettifaq lineup

  1. 42 A. Kanté
  2. 43 B. Celina
  3. 4 J. Hendry
  4. 17 J. Larsson
  5. 7 Khalid Al Ghannam
  6. 1 M. Rodák
  7. 33 Madallah Al Olayan
  8. 11 O. Duda
  9. 5 Pedro Henrique
  10. 61 Radhi Al Otaibi

Bench: Meshal Al Alaeli, Riyadh Sharahili, Z. Al Ghamdi, Yasir Shammari, Abdullah Khateeb, M. Gluščević, Abdulelah, Meshal Sibyani, Turki Ba Al Jawsh

NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: NEOM 0 · draws 2 · Al-Ettifaq 0.

NEOMDrawsAl-Ettifaq
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-21NEOM1-1Al-EttifaqSaudi Arabia Pro League
2026-01-21Al-Ettifaq0-0NEOMSaudi Arabia Pro League

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match