Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha preview
In the match between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Qadisiyah FC at 80% to win, while Abha sits at just 6%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a probability of 11%. Al-Qadisiyah FC has a strong expected goals figure of 2.84 compared to Abha's 0.73, which supports the expectation of a solid performance from the home side.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. While Over 2.5 goals has a high probability of 69%, the likelihood of both teams to score is lower at 49%. If Abha manages to improve their recent form, it could challenge the expected outcomes.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha: model vs market
| Source | Al-Qadisiyah FC | Draw | Abha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.56
- Attack rating (Al-Qadisiyah FC / Abha)
- 1.68 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Al-Qadisiyah FC / Abha)
- 0.75 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Qadisiyah FC goals. Columns: Abha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 80% | 1.25 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.31 | |
| Abha | 6% | 16.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw) | 94% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or Abha) | 20% | 5.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC win by 2+ | 61% | 1.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha recent form
Al-Qadisiyah FC
5W 1D 0L
Abha
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Qadisiyah FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Abha away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Qadisiyah FC at home only, Abha away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood 2026-10-15
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Fayha — match page 2026-10-15
- Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh 2026-10-15
- Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — match page 2026-10-16
- Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab — team news & stats 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Al-Qadisiyah FC, previous: Al Kholood – Al-Qadisiyah FC, 2026-10-09
- Abha, previous: Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC prediction