Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture between Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Hazm at 42%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 15%. Al-Fateh's chances sit at 24%, and both teams to score is at 39%.
Al-Hazm's expected goals stand at 1.15, while Al-Fateh is lower at 0.80. Recent form reveals Al-Hazm with 1 win in 6 matches and Al-Fateh with 0 wins in their last 6. The confidence grade is C, indicating potential uncertainty in the outcome. A draw is possible, given the head-to-head record of 2 draws and no wins for either team in their last 2 encounters.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh: model vs market
| Source | Al-Hazm | Draw | Al-Fateh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.10
- Attack rating (Al-Hazm / Al-Fateh)
- 0.77 / 0.59
- Defence rating (Al-Hazm / Al-Fateh)
- 0.91 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Hazm goals. Columns: Al-Fateh goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Hazm | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Al-Fateh | 20% | 5.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.46 |
| No | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Hazm or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Fateh) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Hazm win by 2+ | 24% | 4.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh recent form
Al-Hazm
1W 2D 3L
Al-Fateh
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Hazm at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
Al-Fateh away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Hazm at home only, Al-Fateh away only.
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Hazm 0 · draws 2 · Al-Fateh 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Al-Fateh | 1-1 | Al-Hazm | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-09-20 | Al-Hazm | 0-0 | Al-Fateh | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood 2026-10-15
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Fayha — match page 2026-10-15
- Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Al-Qadisiyah FC v Abha — match page 2026-10-16
- Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — match page 2026-10-16
- Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab — team news & stats 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Al-Hazm, previous: Al-Hazm vs NEOM: odds and pick
- Al-Fateh, previous: Al-Fateh – Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2026-10-09