Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Fateh at 24%, a draw at 30%, and Al Shabab at 46%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance. Al-Fateh's recent form is L-L-L-D-D-D, while Al Shabab has W-D-L-L-D-D.
The model suggests a 42% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score. Al-Fateh's expected goals stand at 0.94, compared to Al Shabab's 1.40. A surprise result could occur if Al-Fateh improves their scoring, as their recent form has been poor.
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab: model vs market
| Source | Al-Fateh | Draw | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 29% | 28% | 42% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al-Fateh and Al Shabab expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Al-Fateh / Al Shabab)
- 0.73 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Al-Fateh / Al Shabab)
- 1.17 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Fateh goals. Columns: Al Shabab goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Fateh | 29% | 3.42 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Al Shabab | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Fateh or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Shabab) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Shabab win by 2+ | 21% | 4.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al-Fateh and Al Shabab recent form
Al-Fateh
1W 2D 3L
Al Shabab
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Fateh at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Al Shabab away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Fateh at home only, Al Shabab away only.
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Fateh 1 · draws 1 · Al Shabab 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Al Shabab | 1-1 | Al-Fateh | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2026-01-03 | Al-Fateh | 2-0 | Al Shabab | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha 2026-10-22
- Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej Saihat — match page 2026-10-22
- Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — match page 2026-10-23
- NEOM vs Abha 2026-10-24
- Al Kholood v Al-Ettifaq — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Al-Fateh, previous: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat: odds and pick
- Al Shabab, previous: Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC prediction