Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC has an 84% chance of winning against Al-Fateh, who has only a 5% chance. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, with a 10% probability. Al-Hilal's expected goals stand at 3.25, while Al-Fateh's is just 0.75, suggesting a significant disparity in attacking strength.
While Al-Hilal is in strong form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, Al-Fateh has struggled, losing 5 of their last 6. The model indicates a 76% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance for both teams to score. However, unexpected performances from Al-Fateh could alter the outcome, making it essential to consider their potential for improvement.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh: model vs market
| Source | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Draw | Al-Fateh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| Market | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| Published | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.25 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.09, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1.06 | 1.06 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 12.00 | 12.00 | +0.00 |
| Al-Fateh | 23.00 | 23.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.00
- Attack rating (Al-Hilal Saudi FC / Al-Fateh)
- 1.59 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Al-Hilal Saudi FC / Al-Fateh)
- 0.68 / 1.32
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Hilal Saudi FC goals. Columns: Al-Fateh goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 87% | 1.15 |
| Draw | 9% | 11.72 | |
| Al-Fateh | 4% | 23.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw) | 96% | 1.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 91% | 1.09 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Fateh) | 13% | 7.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC win by 2+ | 68% | 1.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh recent form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
5W 0D 1L
Al-Fateh
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Al-Fateh away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home only, Al-Fateh away only.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 · draws 0 · Al-Fateh 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Al-Fateh | 0-1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-11-22 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 2-1 | Al-Fateh | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm — match page 2026-10-29
- Al-Nassr v Al Kholood — match page 2026-10-29
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Abha v Al-Ittihad FC — match page 2026-10-30
- Al Diriyah vs NEOM 2026-10-30
- Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq 2026-10-31
- Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC, previous: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC: odds and pick
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC, next: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC prediction
- Al-Fateh, previous: Al-Fateh v Al Shabab analysis