Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah preview
In the upcoming match between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Shabab at 25%, a draw at 23%, and Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Al-Ahli Jeddah's expected goals stand at 2.53, while Al Shabab's is lower at 1.34.
Al-Ahli Jeddah has shown strong recent form with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, compared to Al Shabab's 2 wins in the same period. The model indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 69%. However, any unexpected performance from Al Shabab could alter these predictions.
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: model vs market
| Source | Al Shabab | Draw | Al-Ahli Jeddah |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 19% | 62% |
| Market | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| Published | 25% | 23% | 53% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Al-Ahli Jeddah below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.87
- Attack rating (Al Shabab / Al-Ahli Jeddah)
- 1.02 / 1.74
- Defence rating (Al Shabab / Al-Ahli Jeddah)
- 1.02 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Shabab goals. Columns: Al-Ahli Jeddah goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shabab | 25% | 4.06 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Shabab or draw) | 47% | 2.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah win by 2+ | 42% | 2.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah recent form
Al Shabab
2W 2D 2L
Al-Ahli Jeddah
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Shabab at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Shabab at home only, Al-Ahli Jeddah away only.
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al Shabab 0 · draws 1 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Al Shabab | 2-5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-10-17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1-1 | Al Shabab | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm — match page 2026-10-29
- Al-Nassr v Al Kholood — match page 2026-10-29
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Abha v Al-Ittihad FC — match page 2026-10-30
- Al Diriyah vs NEOM 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Al Shabab, previous: Al-Fateh v Al Shabab analysis
- Al Shabab, next: Al-Ittihad FC v Al Shabab analysis
- Al-Ahli Jeddah, previous: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat prediction
- Al-Ahli Jeddah, next: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr: odds and pick