Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq preview
In the upcoming match between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Taawon at 19%, a draw at 28%, and Al-Ettifaq at 53%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, which occurs with a 13% probability. Al-Ettifaq has a stronger expected goals figure at 1.55 compared to Al Taawon’s 0.82, indicating a potential advantage.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 45%, suggesting that Al Taawon might find the net despite their recent form of L-D-L-L-L-D. Additionally, the Over 2.5 goals probability is at 42%, leaving room for a higher-scoring game if both teams perform better than expected.
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq: model vs market
| Source | Al Taawon | Draw | Al-Ettifaq |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 26% | 58% |
| Market | 42% | 25% | 32% |
| Published | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Edge | -7% | 0% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Al-Ettifaq below our published probability: +6.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.99, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +15.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Ettifaq, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Taawon | 2.15 | 2.19 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.67 | +0.03 |
| Al-Ettifaq | 2.99 | 2.87 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Al Taawon / Al-Ettifaq)
- 0.55 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Al Taawon / Al-Ettifaq)
- 1.15 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Taawon goals. Columns: Al-Ettifaq goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Taawon | 36% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Al-Ettifaq | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Taawon or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Ettifaq) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ettifaq win by 2+ | 33% | 3.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq recent form
Al Taawon
0W 1D 5L
Al-Ettifaq
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Taawon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 10 matches.
Al-Ettifaq away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Taawon at home only, Al-Ettifaq away only.
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al Taawon 1 · draws 0 · Al-Ettifaq 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Al-Ettifaq | 1-0 | Al Taawon | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-09-18 | Al Taawon | 4-1 | Al-Ettifaq | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm — match page 2026-10-29
- Al-Nassr v Al Kholood — match page 2026-10-29
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Abha v Al-Ittihad FC — match page 2026-10-30
- Al Diriyah vs NEOM 2026-10-30
- Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC 2026-10-31
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Al Taawon, previous: Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon: odds and pick
- Al-Ettifaq, previous: Al Kholood v Al-Ettifaq analysis