Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd preview
Inverness CT faces Ayr Utd with a 53% chance of winning, while Ayr Utd has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which accounts for 10% of predictions. The model suggests a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 57%.
Inverness CT's expected goals stand at 1.80, compared to Ayr Utd's 1.09. Recent form shows Inverness CT with two wins in their last three matches, while Ayr Utd has struggled, winning only two of their last six. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd: model vs market
| Source | Inverness CT | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Inverness CT and Ayr Utd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Inverness CT / Ayr Utd)
- 1.11 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Inverness CT / Ayr Utd)
- 1.07 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inverness CT goals. Columns: Ayr Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inverness CT | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Ayr Utd | 22% | 4.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inverness CT or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Ayr Utd) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inverness CT win by 2+ | 30% | 3.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Inverness CT and Ayr Utd recent form
Inverness CT
3W 1D 2L
Ayr Utd
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inverness CT at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-1
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ayr Utd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inverness CT at home only, Ayr Utd away only.
Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Inverness CT 6 · draws 1 · Ayr Utd 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Ayr Utd | 1-3 | Inverness CT | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-02-24 | Ayr Utd | 1-2 | Inverness CT | Challenge Cup |
| 2024-03-16 | Inverness CT | 1-2 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2024-01-06 | Ayr Utd | 1-3 | Inverness CT | Championship |
| 2023-11-11 | Inverness CT | 3-1 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2023-08-12 | Ayr Utd | 1-0 | Inverness CT | Championship |
| 2023-05-05 | Inverness CT | 1-2 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2023-03-04 | Ayr Utd | 1-2 | Inverness CT | Championship |
| 2022-11-19 | Inverness CT | 2-2 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2022-10-01 | Ayr Utd | 0-1 | Inverness CT | Championship |
Before and after this match
- Inverness CT, previous: Partick vs Inverness CT prediction
- Inverness CT, next: Inverness CT – Cove Rangers, 2026-11-28
- Ayr Utd, previous: Ayr Utd – Raith Rovers, 2026-11-14
- Ayr Utd, next: Largs Thistle – Ayr Utd, 2026-11-28