Updated

Scotland Championship · Matchday 15

Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers

· Somerset Park, Ayr· Referee C. Stirling

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Raith Rovers to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Ayr UtdDrawRaith Rovers

Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAyr UtdDrawRaith Rovers
Model19%28%53%
Market27%29%44%
Published25%29%46%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.83.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Raith Rovers below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Raith Rovers, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-08.

Opened 2.23Now 2.10 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ayr Utd2.983.40+0.42
Draw3.233.13-0.09
Raith Rovers2.232.10-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ayr Utd and Raith Rovers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.83Ayr Utd
1.56Raith Rovers
Total expected goals
2.39
Attack rating (Ayr Utd / Raith Rovers)
0.95 / 1.16
Defence rating (Ayr Utd / Raith Rovers)
1.25 / 0.67

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.4% 13.1% 11.1% 5.8% 3.2% 1 6.4% 13.1% 9.2% 4.8% 2.6% 2 3.2% 4.9% 3.9% 2.0% 1.1% 3 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Ayr Utd goals. Columns: Raith Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ayr Utd25%4.00
Draw29%3.46
Raith Rovers46%2.17
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.34
Under 2.557%1.75
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.18
No54%1.84
Double chance1X (Ayr Utd or draw)54%1.86
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Raith Rovers)75%1.33
Handicap -1Raith Rovers win by 2+29%3.49
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ayr Utd and Raith Rovers recent form

Ayr Utd 2W 1D 3L
Raith Rovers 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ayr Utd at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-3
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.14
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Raith Rovers away

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-1
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
0.57
Clean sheets
3 of 7
  • They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ayr Utd at home only, Raith Rovers away only.

Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Ayr Utd 5 · draws 0 · Raith Rovers 5.

Ayr UtdDrawsRaith Rovers
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-22Raith Rovers2-0Ayr UtdScotland Championship
2026-03-27Raith Rovers3-0Ayr UtdScotland Championship
2026-01-31Ayr Utd2-1Raith RoversScotland Championship
2025-10-11Raith Rovers0-2Ayr UtdScotland Championship
2025-08-09Ayr Utd0-1Raith RoversScotland Championship
2025-04-05Raith Rovers1-0Ayr UtdChampionship
2025-01-04Ayr Utd3-0Raith RoversChampionship
2024-11-01Raith Rovers2-0Ayr UtdChampionship
2024-09-08Ayr Utd3-2Raith RoversChallenge Cup
2024-08-24Ayr Utd2-0Raith RoversChampionship

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match