Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline preview
Raith Rovers face Dunfermline with a 1X2 probability of Raith Rovers at 34% and Dunfermline at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model. Recent form shows Raith Rovers with 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Dunfermline has 3 wins and 3 draws.
The expected goals suggest Raith Rovers will score 1.06 and Dunfermline 0.93. There is a 32% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance for both teams to score. These numbers indicate a close match, but Raith Rovers' recent inconsistency could lead to different outcomes.
Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline: model vs market
| Source | Raith Rovers | Draw | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 34% | 30% |
| Market | 34% | 30% | 37% |
| Published | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.63, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dunfermline, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raith Rovers | 2.67 | 2.71 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 3.06 | +0.06 |
| Dunfermline | 2.55 | 2.48 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Raith Rovers and Dunfermline expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.99
- Attack rating (Raith Rovers / Dunfermline)
- 1.27 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Raith Rovers / Dunfermline)
- 0.76 / 0.65
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Raith Rovers goals. Columns: Dunfermline goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raith Rovers | 34% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Dunfermline | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.44 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Raith Rovers or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Dunfermline) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win by 2+ | 11% | 9.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Raith Rovers and Dunfermline recent form
Raith Rovers
3W 1D 2L
Dunfermline
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Raith Rovers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Dunfermline away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-1
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Raith Rovers at home only, Dunfermline away only.
Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Raith Rovers 4 · draws 0 · Dunfermline 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Dunfermline | 1-0 | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-03-14 | Dunfermline | 3-0 | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-12-27 | Raith Rovers | 1-2 | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-10-17 | Dunfermline | 2-0 | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-08-22 | Raith Rovers | 2-0 | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-03-14 | Raith Rovers | 2-0 | Dunfermline | Championship |
| 2025-02-01 | Dunfermline | 3-1 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 2024-12-14 | Raith Rovers | 2-0 | Dunfermline | Championship |
| 2024-09-13 | Dunfermline | 2-0 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 2024-03-09 | Raith Rovers | 2-0 | Dunfermline | Championship |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Inverness CT v Livingston — match page 2026-11-07
- Morton vs Stenhousemuir — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Arbroath v Ayr Utd — match page 2026-11-07
- Queen's Park vs Partick — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Raith Rovers, previous: Arbroath vs Raith Rovers prediction
- Dunfermline, previous: Dunfermline vs Inverness CT: odds and pick