Morton vs Stenhousemuir preview
In the Scotland Championship fixture between Morton and Stenhousemuir, the 1X2 probabilities show Morton at 36%, a draw at 32%, and Stenhousemuir at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance according to our model.
Morton has struggled lately, with a recent form of W-W-L-L-L-L, while Stenhousemuir has L-L-L-D-L-W. The expected goals are close, with Morton at 1.11 and Stenhousemuir at 1.01. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 36%, and both teams to score stands at 44%. If either team can improve their recent form, it could impact the outcome significantly.
Morton vs Stenhousemuir: model vs market
| Source | Morton | Draw | Stenhousemuir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 31% | 28% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Morton vs Stenhousemuir odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Morton, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 2.58 | 2.58 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| Stenhousemuir | 2.48 | 2.50 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Morton and Stenhousemuir expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (Morton / Stenhousemuir)
- 0.99 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Morton / Stenhousemuir)
- 1.27 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Morton vs Stenhousemuir score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Morton goals. Columns: Stenhousemuir goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Morton vs Stenhousemuir goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Morton vs Stenhousemuir
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Stenhousemuir | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Morton or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Stenhousemuir) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Morton win by 2+ | 19% | 5.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Morton and Stenhousemuir recent form
Morton
3W 0D 3L
Stenhousemuir
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Morton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Stenhousemuir away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Morton at home only, Stenhousemuir away only.
Morton vs Stenhousemuir head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Morton 3 · draws 0 · Stenhousemuir 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Stenhousemuir | 2-0 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-01-17 | Stenhousemuir | 4-0 | Morton | Scotland FA Cup |
| 2025-07-15 | Morton | 3-0 | Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| 2022-06-28 | Stenhousemuir | 0-1 | Morton | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2018-07-21 | Morton | 2-0 | Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline 2026-11-06
- Inverness CT v Livingston — match page 2026-11-07
- Arbroath v Ayr Utd — match page 2026-11-07
- Queen's Park vs Partick — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Morton, previous: Partick – Morton, 2026-10-31
- Stenhousemuir, previous: Stenhousemuir – Livingston, 2026-10-30