Arbroath vs Ayr Utd preview
In the upcoming match between Arbroath and Ayr Utd, the 1X2 probabilities show Ayr Utd at 41%, while Arbroath sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 17% chance according to our model. Ayr Utd's expected goals are 1.01, compared to Arbroath's 0.69, indicating a potential edge for the visitors.
However, recent form suggests unpredictability. Arbroath has lost four of their last six matches, while Ayr Utd has mixed results with two wins and a draw in their last six. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 24%, and both teams to score is at 33%. These factors could influence the outcome, making it essential to consider the teams' current performances.
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd: model vs market
| Source | Arbroath | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 29% | 54% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Published | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ayr Utd below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.44, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ayr Utd, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 2.90 | 2.89 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.12 | +0.04 |
| Ayr Utd | 2.37 | 2.37 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arbroath and Ayr Utd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.16
- Attack rating (Arbroath / Ayr Utd)
- 0.52 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Arbroath / Ayr Utd)
- 1.41 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arbroath goals. Columns: Ayr Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arbroath vs Ayr Utd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arbroath | 28% | 3.56 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Ayr Utd | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.50 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arbroath or draw) | 57% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Ayr Utd) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ayr Utd win by 2+ | 28% | 3.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arbroath and Ayr Utd recent form
Arbroath
1W 0D 5L
Ayr Utd
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arbroath at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 13 matches.
Ayr Utd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arbroath at home only, Ayr Utd away only.
Arbroath vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arbroath 1 · draws 4 · Ayr Utd 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ayr Utd | 2-0 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-04-11 | Ayr Utd | 1-0 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-03-03 | Arbroath | 1-1 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-11-15 | Ayr Utd | 1-1 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-08-01 | Arbroath | 1-1 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-07-19 | Ayr Utd | 4-0 | Arbroath | League Cup |
| 2024-04-13 | Ayr Utd | 5-0 | Arbroath | Championship |
| 2024-01-23 | Ayr Utd | 2-0 | Arbroath | Championship |
| 2024-01-13 | Arbroath | 0-0 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2023-09-02 | Arbroath | 2-1 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline 2026-11-06
- Inverness CT v Livingston — match page 2026-11-07
- Morton vs Stenhousemuir — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Queen's Park vs Partick — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Arbroath, previous: Arbroath vs Raith Rovers prediction
- Ayr Utd, previous: Ayr Utd v Queen's Park analysis