Updated

Scotland Championship · Matchday 15

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park

· Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir· Referee G. Soutar

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Stenhousemuir to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
StenhousemuirDrawQueen's Park

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStenhousemuirDrawQueen's Park
Model51%29%20%
Market52%26%22%
Published52%27%21%
Edge0%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.85.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Stenhousemuir, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-08.

Opened 1.91Now 1.75 -0.16
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Stenhousemuir1.911.75-0.16
Draw3.403.50+0.10
Queen's Park3.804.25+0.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Stenhousemuir and Queen's Park expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48Stenhousemuir
0.85Queen's Park
Total expected goals
2.33
Attack rating (Stenhousemuir / Queen's Park)
0.88 / 0.64
Defence rating (Stenhousemuir / Queen's Park)
1.23 / 1.28

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.0% 7.1% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 1 13.2% 13.5% 5.2% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.6% 9.0% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 3 5.2% 4.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Stenhousemuir goals. Columns: Queen's Park goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Stenhousemuir52%1.93
Draw27%3.73
Queen's Park21%4.70
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.43
Under 2.559%1.70
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.20
No55%1.83
Double chance1X (Stenhousemuir or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Queen's Park)48%2.08
Handicap -1Stenhousemuir win by 2+26%3.79
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Stenhousemuir and Queen's Park recent form

Stenhousemuir 0W 1D 5L
Queen's Park 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Stenhousemuir at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-2
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.14
Goals against / match
0.86
Clean sheets
3 of 7
  • They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Queen's Park away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-6
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.43
Goals against / match
1.86
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 14 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Stenhousemuir at home only, Queen's Park away only.

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Stenhousemuir 2 · draws 2 · Queen's Park 5.

StenhousemuirDrawsQueen's Park
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-22Queen's Park0-2StenhousemuirScotland Championship
2021-04-10Stenhousemuir1-3Queen's ParkLeague Two
2020-11-28Queen's Park3-1StenhousemuirLeague Two
2020-03-07Stenhousemuir0-0Queen's ParkLeague Two
2020-01-04Queen's Park2-1StenhousemuirLeague Two
2019-11-02Stenhousemuir0-3Queen's ParkLeague Two
2019-08-10Queen's Park1-1StenhousemuirLeague Two
2017-04-29Queen's Park0-2StenhousemuirLeague One
2017-02-11Stenhousemuir0-2Queen's ParkLeague One

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match