Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir preview
In the fixture between Arbroath and Stenhousemuir, the 1X2 probabilities show Arbroath at 36% and Stenhousemuir at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a probability of 54%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 48%.
Arbroath's recent form includes 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Stenhousemuir has 5 losses and 1 draw in their last 6. The expected goals are closely matched, with Arbroath at 1.30 and Stenhousemuir at 1.29. A draw or a high-scoring game could challenge the predicted outcome.
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir: model vs market
| Source | Arbroath | Draw | Stenhousemuir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Arbroath and Stenhousemuir expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Arbroath / Stenhousemuir)
- 0.81 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Arbroath / Stenhousemuir)
- 1.35 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arbroath goals. Columns: Stenhousemuir goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arbroath | 36% | 2.78 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Stenhousemuir | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arbroath or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Stenhousemuir) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arbroath win by 2+ | 17% | 6.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Arbroath and Stenhousemuir recent form
Arbroath
1W 0D 5L
Stenhousemuir
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arbroath at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 13 matches.
Stenhousemuir away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arbroath at home only, Stenhousemuir away only.
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Arbroath 5 · draws 0 · Stenhousemuir 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Stenhousemuir | 1-0 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-04-12 | Arbroath | 4-0 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 2025-02-22 | Stenhousemuir | 2-0 | Arbroath | League One |
| 2024-11-02 | Arbroath | 1-0 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 2024-08-03 | Stenhousemuir | 2-1 | Arbroath | League One |
| 2019-03-09 | Arbroath | 0-2 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 2019-01-12 | Stenhousemuir | 1-4 | Arbroath | League One |
| 2018-12-01 | Arbroath | 5-2 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 2018-09-22 | Stenhousemuir | 1-2 | Arbroath | League One |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- Raith Rovers vs Partick 2026-11-21
- Dunfermline v Morton — match page 2026-11-21
- Queen's Park vs Livingston 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Arbroath, previous: Arbroath – Ayr Utd, 2026-11-07
- Arbroath, next: Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath prediction
- Stenhousemuir, previous: Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park: odds and pick
- Stenhousemuir, next: Stenhousemuir vs East Fife prediction