Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath Prediction & Betting Tips 28/11/2026

Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath preview

Cumnock Juniors face Arbroath with a 71% probability of winning, compared to Arbroath's 10%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Cumnock Juniors' expected goals of 2.31 against Arbroath's 0.78.

Cumnock Juniors have shown strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Arbroath has lost 6 straight games. However, if Arbroath can improve from their expected goals of 0.78, they could potentially disrupt the predicted outcome. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 60%, and both teams to score is at 50%, indicating some uncertainty in the match's dynamics.

Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Cumnock Juniors	Draw	Arbroath
Model	71%	19%	10%
Market	—	—	—
Published	71%	19%	10%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.78.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Cumnock Juniors and Arbroath expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.31Cumnock Juniors

0.78Arbroath

Total expected goals: 3.09
Attack rating (Cumnock Juniors / Arbroath): 1.20 / 0.64
Defence rating (Cumnock Juniors / Arbroath): 0.79 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 2.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1 9.7% 9.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 2 12.2% 9.5% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3 9.4% 7.3% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 9.3% 7.2% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Cumnock Juniors goals. Columns: Arbroath goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 60%

Over 3.5 37%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Cumnock Juniors	71%	1.41
	Draw	19%	5.28
	Arbroath	10%	9.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	60%	1.68
	Under 2.5	40%	2.47
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	2.02
	No	50%	1.98
Double chance	1X (Cumnock Juniors or draw)	90%	1.11
	12 (either side)	81%	1.23
	X2 (draw or Arbroath)	29%	3.44
Handicap -1	Cumnock Juniors win by 2+	48%	2.06
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer