Largs Thistle vs Ayr Utd preview
Largs Thistle faces Ayr Utd with a 66% chance of winning according to our model, compared to Ayr's 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with expected goals of 2.20 for Largs Thistle and 0.90 for Ayr Utd. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 60%, while both teams to score stands at 54%.
However, Largs Thistle's recent form shows two consecutive wins, while Ayr Utd has a mixed record with two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency from Ayr could impact their performance, making the predicted outcome uncertain.
Largs Thistle vs Ayr Utd: model vs market
| Source | Largs Thistle | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.90.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Largs Thistle and Ayr Utd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Largs Thistle / Ayr Utd)
- 1.23 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Largs Thistle / Ayr Utd)
- 0.80 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Largs Thistle vs Ayr Utd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Largs Thistle goals. Columns: Ayr Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Largs Thistle vs Ayr Utd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Largs Thistle vs Ayr Utd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Largs Thistle | 66% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Ayr Utd | 13% | 7.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Largs Thistle or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Ayr Utd) | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Largs Thistle win by 2+ | 43% | 2.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Largs Thistle and Ayr Utd recent form
Largs Thistle
2W 0D 0L
Ayr Utd
2W 1D 3L
Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Ross County v Brora Rangers — match page 2026-11-28
- Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers — team news & stats 2026-11-28
- Queen of the South vs Dunfermline 2026-11-28
- Montrose v Hamilton Academical — match page 2026-11-28
- Annan Athletic vs Morton — team news & stats 2026-11-28
- Elgin City vs Partick 2026-11-28
- Peterhead v Edinburgh City — match page 2026-11-28
- Queen's Park vs Spartans — team news & stats 2026-11-28
Before and after this match
- Ayr Utd, previous: Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd prediction
- Ayr Utd, next: Morton v Ayr Utd analysis