Queen's Park vs Spartans Prediction & Betting Tips 28/11/2026

Queen's Park vs Spartans preview

In the Scotland FA Cup fixture between Queen's Park and Spartans, the 1X2 probabilities show Spartans at 47%, while Queen's Park sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance. Queen's Park has struggled recently, recording four losses in their last six matches. This could impact their performance, as they have an expected goals figure of 0.81 compared to Spartans' 1.30.

The model suggests there is a 35% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance for both teams to score. However, if Queen's Park improves their attacking output or Spartans underperform, these predictions could change. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty about the outcome.

Queen's Park vs Spartans: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Queen's Park	Draw	Spartans
Model	22%	31%	47%
Market	—	—	—
Published	22%	31%	47%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.81.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Queen's Park and Spartans expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.81Queen's Park

1.30Spartans

Total expected goals: 2.11
Attack rating (Queen's Park / Spartans): 0.52 / 0.88
Defence rating (Queen's Park / Spartans): 0.97 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Queen's Park vs Spartans score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.4% 14.5% 10.3% 4.5% 1.9% 1 8.5% 14.0% 8.3% 3.6% 1.6% 2 4.0% 5.2% 3.4% 1.5% 0.6% 3 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Queen's Park goals. Columns: Spartans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Queen's Park vs Spartans goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 64%

Over 2.5 35%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Queen's Park vs Spartans

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Queen's Park	22%	4.56
	Draw	31%	3.21
	Spartans	47%	2.13
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	35%	2.83
	Under 2.5	65%	1.55
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.40
	No	58%	1.72
Double chance	1X (Queen's Park or draw)	53%	1.88
	12 (either side)	69%	1.45
	X2 (draw or Spartans)	78%	1.28
Handicap -1	Spartans win by 2+	23%	4.44
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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