Queen of the South vs Dunfermline Prediction & Betting Tips 28/11/2026

Queen of the South vs Dunfermline preview

In the FA Cup match between Queen of the South and Dunfermline, the 1X2 probabilities show Dunfermline at 43%, compared to Queen of the South at 22% and a draw at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 17% probability.

Queen of the South has struggled recently, with a form of D-D-L-L-W, while Dunfermline has performed better, with a record of D-W-W-W-D-D. The expected goals support this, with Queen of the South at 0.71 and Dunfermline at 1.10. However, if Queen of the South improves their attacking play, it could lead to a different outcome than predicted.

Queen of the South vs Dunfermline: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Queen of the South	Draw	Dunfermline
Model	22%	34%	43%
Market	—	—	—
Published	22%	34%	43%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.10 vs 0.71.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Queen of the South and Dunfermline expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.71Queen of the South

1.10Dunfermline

Total expected goals: 1.81
Attack rating (Queen of the South / Dunfermline): 0.79 / 0.79
Defence rating (Queen of the South / Dunfermline): 0.91 / 0.47

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Queen of the South vs Dunfermline score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.6% 16.7% 9.9% 3.6% 1.3% 1 10.4% 14.1% 7.0% 2.6% 0.9% 2 4.1% 4.6% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 3 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Queen of the South goals. Columns: Dunfermline goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Queen of the South vs Dunfermline goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%

Over 1.5 55%

Over 2.5 27%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 35%
No goals (0–0): 18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Queen of the South vs Dunfermline

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Queen of the South	22%	4.48
	Draw	34%	2.90
	Dunfermline	43%	2.31
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	27%	3.67
	Under 2.5	73%	1.37
Both teams to score	Yes	35%	2.84
	No	65%	1.54
Double chance	1X (Queen of the South or draw)	57%	1.76
	12 (either side)	66%	1.53
	X2 (draw or Dunfermline)	78%	1.29
Handicap -1	Dunfermline win by 2+	19%	5.39
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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