Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers Prediction & Betting Tips 28/11/2026

Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers preview

Inverness CT faces Cove Rangers with 39% chances to win compared to 31% for Cove Rangers. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 10%. Both teams to score stands at 50%, indicating a balanced matchup, while Over 2.5 goals is at 44%.

Inverness CT's expected goals are 1.29, slightly higher than Cove Rangers' 1.13. Recent form shows Inverness CT with D-L-W-W-L-W and Cove Rangers with D-W-L-W-W. The head-to-head record shows Cove Rangers with 1 win from their last encounter. These factors could affect the outcome, especially if either team exceeds their expected goals.

Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Inverness CT	Draw	Cove Rangers
Model	39%	30%	31%
Market	—	—	—
Published	39%	30%	31%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Inverness CT and Cove Rangers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29Inverness CT

1.13Cove Rangers

Total expected goals: 2.42
Attack rating (Inverness CT / Cove Rangers): 0.85 / 0.90
Defence rating (Inverness CT / Cove Rangers): 0.82 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 8.7% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 1 10.2% 14.3% 7.3% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.4% 8.4% 4.7% 1.8% 0.6% 3 3.2% 3.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Inverness CT goals. Columns: Cove Rangers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 44%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Inverness CT	39%	2.56
	Draw	30%	3.33
	Cove Rangers	31%	3.23
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44%	2.30
	Under 2.5	56%	1.77
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	1.99
	No	50%	2.01
Double chance	1X (Inverness CT or draw)	69%	1.45
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or Cove Rangers)	61%	1.64
Handicap -1	Inverness CT win by 2+	18%	5.51
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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