Elgin City vs Partick Prediction & Betting Tips 28/11/2026

Elgin City vs Partick preview

In the FA Cup match between Elgin City and Partick, the 1X2 probabilities show Elgin City at 32%, draw at 30%, and Partick at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance according to our model.

Elgin City's expected goals are 1.17, while Partick's are 1.32, indicating a slight edge for Partick in scoring potential. Both teams to score is at 52%, suggesting a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, if Elgin City can improve their recent form, which includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, they might challenge Partick more effectively than expected.

Elgin City vs Partick: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Elgin City	Draw	Partick
Model	32%	30%	39%
Market	—	—	—
Published	32%	30%	39%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Elgin City and Partick expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Elgin City

1.32Partick

Total expected goals: 2.49
Attack rating (Elgin City / Partick): 1.18 / 0.85
Defence rating (Elgin City / Partick): 1.01 / 0.53

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Elgin City vs Partick score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.6% 9.7% 7.2% 3.2% 1.4% 1 8.4% 14.1% 8.5% 3.7% 1.6% 2 5.7% 7.5% 4.9% 2.2% 1.0% 3 2.2% 2.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Elgin City goals. Columns: Partick goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Elgin City vs Partick goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 72%

Over 2.5 45%

Over 3.5 24%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Elgin City vs Partick

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Elgin City	32%	3.16
	Draw	30%	3.38
	Partick	39%	2.58
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45%	2.21
	Under 2.5	55%	1.83
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.93
	No	48%	2.07
Double chance	1X (Elgin City or draw)	61%	1.63
	12 (either side)	70%	1.42
	X2 (draw or Partick)	68%	1.46
Handicap -1	Partick win by 2+	18%	5.49
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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