Annan Athletic vs Morton preview
Annan Athletic faces Morton with a 46% chance of winning compared to Morton's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.05 for Annan Athletic and 1.65 for Morton. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both sit at 71%, indicating a strong potential for a high-scoring match.
However, the recent form shows Annan Athletic with a mixed record of D-L-W-W-L, while Morton has a stronger recent performance with W-W-W-W-L-L. This could impact the match outcome, as momentum plays a crucial role in cup fixtures. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Annan Athletic vs Morton: model vs market
| Source | Annan Athletic | Draw | Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.65.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Annan Athletic and Morton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.70
- Attack rating (Annan Athletic / Morton)
- 1.03 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Annan Athletic / Morton)
- 1.16 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Annan Athletic vs Morton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Annan Athletic goals. Columns: Morton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Annan Athletic vs Morton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Annan Athletic vs Morton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Annan Athletic | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Morton | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Annan Athletic or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Morton) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Annan Athletic win by 2+ | 27% | 3.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Annan Athletic and Morton recent form
Annan Athletic
2W 1D 2L
Morton
4W 0D 2L
Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Morton, previous: Dunfermline v Morton analysis
- Morton, next: Morton v Ayr Utd analysis