Montrose vs Hamilton Academical preview
In the FA Cup fixture between Montrose and Hamilton Academical, the 1X2 probabilities show Montrose at 55%, while Hamilton Academical sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. With expected goals of 2.21 for Montrose and 1.40 for Hamilton Academical, there is a strong case for Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 68%.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Recent form also suggests variability, as Montrose has alternated results with a record of L-W-L-W, while Hamilton Academical has two losses followed by two wins. This inconsistency could affect the predicted outcomes.
Montrose vs Hamilton Academical: model vs market
| Source | Montrose | Draw | Hamilton Academical |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.40.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Montrose and Hamilton Academical expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.61
- Attack rating (Montrose / Hamilton Academical)
- 1.12 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Montrose / Hamilton Academical)
- 1.08 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Montrose vs Hamilton Academical score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Montrose goals. Columns: Hamilton Academical goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Montrose vs Hamilton Academical goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Montrose vs Hamilton Academical
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montrose | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Hamilton Academical | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Montrose or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Hamilton Academical) | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Montrose win by 2+ | 35% | 2.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Montrose and Hamilton Academical recent form
Montrose
2W 0D 2L
Hamilton Academical
2W 0D 2L
Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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